The Euro gained against the dollar in today’s trading session on the increased likelihood of US lawmakers reaching an agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff. The EUR/USD pair extended near to the psychological level of 1.3000, reaching a session high of 1.2995. At 12.20 GMT the pair was trading at 1.2984/85 or 0.24 percent higher than yesterday.
With the US stock market closing strongly up on Wednesday and indexes touching fresh 2-weeks high, the EUR/USD is poised for further advancement. According to FXstreet.com the better morale in the Eurozone could push the pair above 1.3000 and towards a resistance level at 1.3008. A break above that may see the price reaching the 1.3040/50 zone ahead of a probable peak for today around 1.3080 in the case that the bullish sentiment persists. On the downside the EUR/USD will find support at 1.2950, 1.2920 and towards the 1.2880 area.
Market participants are in anticipation of the US third quarter GDP report at 13.30 GMT. Analysts at TD Securities opined that the markets expect a considerable upward revision on the GDP figure from 2.0 percent to about 2.8 percent. “This puts the US on considerably stronger footing heading into the peak fiscal cliff uncertainty”
The Eurozone confidence index came out better than expected today with services sentiment, industrial confidence, economic sentiment and business climate figures all beating forecasts and improving.
The yen remained largely range-bound against the dollar in intraday trading – the USD/JPY reached a session high of 82.23 before surrendering some of its gains. At 12.50 the pair was still trading in positive territory at 82.11/13 or 0.05 percent higher.
“This [82.68/83.17] is tough near term resistance for the market we are not surprised to see the market stall here ahead of further gains very near term”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones, as quoted by FXstreet.com
Japan’s Retail Trade growth rate in October came out at 0.7 percent below analysts’ forecasts of 1 percent expansion. The figure was still better than the September contraction of 3.5 percent. Meanwhile the discussion on Japan’s monetary policy continues as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shinzo Abe reiterated his position for further quantitative easing until inflation reaches 2 percent. Bank of Japan’s Governor Masaaki Shirakawa opposed the suggestion and insisted for a 1 percent inflation target.
Bloomberg reported that the pound weakened against the euro due to an industry report from the UK showing that house prices stalled this month, further fuelling fears the British economy is losing momentum.
At 13.00 GMT the EUR/GBP pair traded in positive territory at 0.8105/07 or 0.22 percent higher than yesterday. A break above the October 6th high at 0.8169 will be a strong indicator for a medium to long term bullish trend.
“The picture for sterling is going to turn more negative,” said Ian Stannard, head of European currency strategy at Morgan Stanley, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Sterling has been relatively well supported by safe-haven flows from Europe but as volatility and risk premium in European asset markets reduces, these flows are slowing. That is going to expose sterling to its underlying fundamentals, which I don’t think are positive.”