Fair rate of return

The fair rate of return is the minimum return that investors expect to receive from an investment to compensate for the risk taken and the opportunity cost of investing their capital.
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Updated on Jun 13, 2024
Reading time 5 minutes

3 key takeaways:

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  • The fair rate of return is the minimum expected return on an investment, reflecting the risk and opportunity cost of the investment.
  • It is used to evaluate the attractiveness of investments and to set pricing and performance benchmarks.
  • Determining the fair rate of return involves considering market conditions, risk levels, and alternative investment opportunities.

What is the fair rate of return?

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The fair rate of return is a benchmark used by investors to determine whether an investment is worthwhile. It represents the return that investors require to compensate for the risk they assume by investing their capital in a particular asset, as well as the opportunity cost of not investing in the next best alternative. This rate is essential for making informed investment decisions, setting financial goals, and evaluating the performance of various investments.

Factors influencing the fair rate of return

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Several factors influence the determination of the fair rate of return:

  1. Risk:
  • Higher-risk investments generally require higher returns to compensate investors for the increased uncertainty. For example, equities typically offer higher potential returns than government bonds due to their higher risk.
  1. Opportunity Cost:
  • The fair rate of return considers the returns available from alternative investments. Investors will compare the potential returns of various assets and choose the ones that offer the best risk-adjusted returns.
  1. Market Conditions:
  • Economic conditions, interest rates, and market trends affect the fair rate of return. During periods of economic growth, higher returns may be expected, while in downturns, investors might accept lower returns due to increased risk aversion.
  1. Inflation:
  • Inflation reduces the purchasing power of returns. Therefore, the fair rate of return must account for expected inflation to ensure that the real return (adjusted for inflation) meets investors’ expectations.
  1. Time Horizon:
  • The length of the investment period influences the required rate of return. Long-term investments might tolerate more volatility for higher returns, whereas short-term investments might prioritize stability.

Calculating the fair rate of return

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The fair rate of return can be calculated using various models and approaches, depending on the type of investment and the specific circumstances. Common methods include:

  1. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM):
  • CAPM is widely used to estimate the fair rate of return for stocks. It considers the risk-free rate (typically the yield on government bonds), the stock’s beta (a measure of its volatility relative to the market), and the expected market return. The formula is: [ \text{Expected Return} = \text{Risk-Free Rate} + \beta \times (\text{Market Return} – \text{Risk-Free Rate}) ]
  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM):
  • DDM estimates the fair rate of return based on the present value of expected future dividends. The formula is: [ \text{Expected Return} = \frac{\text{Dividend}}{\text{Current Stock Price}} + \text{Growth Rate of Dividends} ]
  1. Bond Yield:
  • For bonds, the yield to maturity (YTM) is often used as the fair rate of return. YTM considers the bond’s current market price, coupon payments, and time to maturity.
  1. Internal Rate of Return (IRR):
  • IRR is used to evaluate investment projects. It is the discount rate that makes the net present value (NPV) of the project’s cash flows equal to zero.

Importance of the fair rate of return

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Understanding and determining the fair rate of return is crucial for several reasons:

  • Investment Decisions: It helps investors compare different investment opportunities and make informed choices based on their risk tolerance and return expectations.
  • Performance Evaluation: Investors and portfolio managers use the fair rate of return to assess whether their investments are performing adequately relative to the expected return.
  • Pricing and Valuation: The fair rate of return is used in financial models to price securities and value investment projects, ensuring that prices reflect the true risk and return potential.
  • Regulatory Compliance: In regulated industries, such as utilities, the fair rate of return is used to set rates that provide a reasonable return on investment while protecting consumers from excessive charges.
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Exploring related topics can provide a deeper understanding of the fair rate of return and its applications. Risk-adjusted return measures, such as the Sharpe ratio, evaluate returns relative to the risk taken. Investment appraisal techniques, including NPV and IRR, help in assessing the viability of investment projects. Portfolio theory explores how diversification and asset allocation affect expected returns. Additionally, studying market efficiency provides insights into how information is reflected in asset prices and expected returns.

By studying these areas, one can gain a comprehensive understanding of the fair rate of return, its determinants, and its significance in investment decision-making and financial analysis.


Sources & references

Arti

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Arti is a specialized AI Financial Assistant at Invezz, created to support the editorial team. He leverages both AI and the Invezz.com knowledge base, understands over 100,000 Invezz related data points, has read every piece of research, news and guidance we\'ve ever produced, and is trained to never make up new...