Forex Intraday Round-up: Nowotny Talks Down Juncker’s Remarks, Boosting the EUR

on Jan 16, 2013


The euro was trading in slightly negative territory in the morning session on the foreign exchange markets recovering from remarks by Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of the Eurozone finance ministers, who noted that the euro was “dangerously high”. At 12.30 GMT the EUR/USD was exchanging at 1.3297/00, 0.05 percent lower than yesterday.
Ewald Nowotny, member of the European Central Bank’s governing council, talked down Juncker’s statement by saying that currency wars are self-defeating and the EUR was not a matter of major concern. Marcin Budkiewicz, TD securities analyst, opined that “Junker’s comments may have more to do with the fact that he is meant to leave the Presidency of the Eurogroup soon and this was a chance for him to perhaps take some of the steam out of the currency in a way an incoming President would not want to weigh in so early in their tenure.” wrote that in the past month the euro has rallied against the US dollar amidst growing signs of fortitude amongst the financial markets that point to mitigation of the three-year long debt crisis. However the pair lost momentum after ECB President Mario Draghi hinted there will is no immediate plan for further monetary policy easing.
From a technical perspective support for the EUR/USD is seen at 1.3265, 1.3249 and finally 1.3201. If the downward trend is reversed resistance is expected at 1.3373, 1.3404 and 1.3487.

The pound fell for the fourth consecutive day against the dollar in the European morning session and at 12.50 GMT was trading at an intraday low of 1.5983/85, 0.49 percent lower than yesterday.
!m[GBP Marks Fourth Day of Decline Against USD, ZAR Falls on Amplats Remarks](/uploads/story/1226/thumbs/pic1_inline.png)
Forex analysts at Morgan Stanley opined that Prime Minister David Cameron’s plan to renegotiate Britain’s European Union membership may cause “the corporate investment climate” to suffer. Lloyds Banking

Group said it will require “something significant” to create a sizeable rally in the GBP/USD.
The UK will be auctioning £1 billion of inflation-linked debt due in 2029 tomorrow. The yield on 10-year gilts fell by two basis points to 2.01 percent at 11.14 GMT after dropping to 1.98 percent yesterday, the lowest since 3 January.
The GBP/USD broke below two support levels – 1.6003 and 1.5992 and as of writing is battling with yet another support at 1.5988. If the trend reverses, resistance for the pair is expected at 1.6085, 1.6140 and finally 1.6156.

The rand continued its slide against the US dollar as a result of negative sentiment driven by Anglo American Platinum’s decision to suspend some of its operations. At 01.00 GMT the USD/ZAR was trading at 8.8391/46, 0.37 percent higher than yesterday. According to Vunani Capital global market analyst Kuziva Muganiwa the rand could weaken to 8.9000 within the day. “We’re still seeing some effect of the downgrade,” he said, referring to Fitch downgrading South Africa’s credit rating. “This, in combination with profit-taking on equities markets, a lack of fresh good news locally and Amplats’ plans to scale down their operations have all negatively impacted on the rand.”