Forex: Daily Outlook

on May 28, 2013


Yesterday, Monday 27 May, the EUR/USD wasn’t actively traded due to the bank holiday in the United States, and stayed within a narrow range of 35 pips. In this morning’s Asian trading, the pair moved down to 1.2885, dropping from 1.2935 (0.50 percent) at around 1.00 am BST. At this time the Japanese CSPI (Corporate Services Price Index) y/y was released, showing a decrease of 0.4 percent, compared to both the prior and the expected decline of 0.2 percent.

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At 7.00 am BST this morning, the German import prices report was released, indicating a 1.4 percent decline. Analysts had expected a 0.2 percent drop, while the prior month number was -0.1 percent.
Scheduled for release in the US today are reports on the S&P/CS composite-20 HPI year-on-year (10.2 percent expected value), the CB consumer confidence survey (70.7 percent expected value) and the Richmond manufacturing index (2 points increase expected).

Currently the pair is trading at 1.2920.
Yesterday was a bank holiday in both the UK and the US and the was dealt between 1.5155 and 1.5085. With the Japanese report on CSPI showed negative data during the current Asian session, the GBP/USD has dropped from 1.5108 to 1.5065 (0.43 percent). Other pairs have also declined.
Today at 6.00 pm BST, BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Paul Tucker is to speak at the Institute of Government in London.

Since Thursday 23 May, the pair has been finding support at the 100.80 level and yesterday traded within a 55 pips range. But during today’s Asian session today the price jumped one percent, from 101.05 to 102.05,. on the back of the negative Japanese CSPI.
Asian stocks increased in today’s Asian trading, after six days of declines, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising by 0.4 percent at around 2:40 p.m. in Tokyo, and Japan’s Topix Index (TPX) gaining 1.8 percent. The Yen weakened in consequence.

Copper prices fell earlier today and corn prices rose.
The pair seems to be finding support at 0.9600, testing the level for the second time since May 23rd. The price has bounced off the support and is now residing at 0.9646. The AUD/USD is again moving within yesterday’s range between 0.9665 and 0.9616, having dropped to 0.9596 during the day’s early Asian trading.
The LME copper price has dropped by 0.6 percent to $7240.0/MT and aluminium is off by 0.6 percent to $1814.5/MT.
Yesterday the price opened at 1.0320, reached a low at 1.0313 and then a high at 1.0345 before closing at 1.0345. During the just-concluded Asian session, the pair traded above yesterday’s range and is currently around 1.0246.
A report on Canadian corporate profits q/q is due to be released today at 1.30 pm BST. The prior period showed a 1.4 percent increase.
So far today, the pair seems to be finding support at 0.9592, belowe which there’s been no descent since last Friday, May 24. During today’s Asian session, the pair traded above yesterday’s high of 0.9647 and in early European trading is currently at 0.9672.
At 7.00 am BST today, the Swiss trade balance showed CHF1.73 billion in May, compared to the expected CHF2.02 billion. April’s count had been CHF1.89 billion.
At 8.15 am BST, the Swiss Q1 employment level will be announced, with the expected number being 4.11 million. The previous quarter was 4.12 million.


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