Forex: Daily Outlook 31 May

on May 31, 2013
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**EUR/USD**

Yesterday the daily candle opened at 1.2947 and closed at 1.3042, just below the 61 percent Fibo of 1.3200 to 1.2800. The high of the day was at 1.3061 and the low 1.2934. Today the price opened at 1.3042 and during the Asian session has since moved in a 15 pips range.
The German April retail sales report is due out at 07.00 BST and is expected to rise by 0.3 percent. The French consumer spending for April will be announced at 07.45 BST with a forecasted drop of 0.5 percent. Eurostat is to announce at 10.00 BST the EU CPI flash estimate for May, with projections for a rise of 1.4 percent, and May’s Eurozone unemployment rate, with the number expected to be 12.2 percent – higher than the prior period’s 12.1 percent.

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From the United States at 13.30 BST, the April Core PCE Price Index is expected to show 0.1 percent growth. At the same time the Bureau of Economic Analysis is releasing April personal spending and personal income reports with an expected rise of 0.2 percent in each. At 14.45 BST the Chicago PMI for May is due out, and ten minutes later the University of Michigan’s May revision on consumer sentiment (anticipated rise to 84.1 points from the prior 83.7).

OPEC meetings are scheduled for today.
At the moment the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3039.
**GBP/USD**
Yesterday the pair gained 0.98 percent to close at 1.5228, just at the descending MA89 on the daily chart. Currently in early European trading the price is residing at 1.5220, after very shallow Asian trade.
At 00.01 BST today May the GfK Consumer Confidence Index showed a rise from -25 point to -22 points. The Bank of England is scheduled to announce at 09.30 BST April net lending to individuals, M4 money supply and mortgage approvals.

**USD/JPY**
Yesterday the daily candle formed a doji, opening at 100.95, reaching a high of 101.80, dropping to 100.47 low and closing at 101.11. In today’s early European session the price is at 100.92.
The Japanese May Manufacturing PMI showed earlier today a rise to 51.5 points from the prior 51.1. April household spending y/y rose by 1.5 percent, less than the expected 3.1. Tokyo core CPI in May revealed growth of 0.1 percent, compared with the expected decrease of 0.2 percent. The Japanese unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 4.1 percent in April. And that month’s preliminary industrial production increased by 1.7 percent, more than the forecasted 0.8 percent and the prior 0.2 percent.

**AUD/USD**
Yesterday the AUD/USD rose by 0.36 percent and closed at 0.9668. Currently the pair is changing hands at 0.9656, with trading more generally within yesterday’s range of 0.9584 to 0.9697.
This morning the Reserve bank of Australia announced a 0.3 percent rise in the total value of new credit issued to consumers and businesses.
**USD/CAD**
The pair lost 0.45 percent yesterday and closed at 1.0304. Movement in the USD/CAD was less than with the other majors during today’s Asian trading.
Statistics Canada is scheduled to release March GDP data at 13.30 BST. Analysts expect 0.1 percent growth.
**USD/CHF**
The USD/CHF dropped by 0.78 percent yesterday, closing at 0.9536 within a support area of between 0.9525 and 0.9565.

Currently in early European trading the pair is at the 0.9540 level.
The KOF economic research agency is about to release a report on the Swiss economic barometer for May. Analysts forecast a rise to 1.08 points from the prior 1.02.

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