Forex: Daily outlook: Australian trade balance in surplus

on Jul 3, 2013
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**EUR/USD**

Due out today at 08.15 BST is the Spanish services PMI for June, which is expected to rise to 47.8 points from the prior 47.3 points. Following half an hour later are the Italian and French services PMIs. Italy’s is forecasted to be 47.1 points, up from May’s 46.5. The French index is also expected to show a rise – to 46.5 points in June from the previous 44.3. And at 09.00 BST the Eurozone final services PMI (June) is due out with expectations of no change from May’s 48.6 points.

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Eurozone retail sales for May is due out at 10.00 BST. Analysts are expecting a rise by 0.4 percent, compared to the prior drop of 0.5 percent.
From the US at 12.00 BST, the MBA mortgage applications for last week are to be announced. At 12.30 BST comes a report on the June Challenger job cuts y/y. The prior release had a decrease of 41.2 percent, some 36,398 positions. At 13.15 BST, the ADP non-farm employment change is expected to show a rise by 161,000 in June, compared to the prior month’s 135,000.

The US trade balance for May is due for release at 13.30 BST, with the forecast for a deficit of $0.7 billion, compared to the previous deficit of $0.6 billion. Being reported at the same time is last week’s unemployment claims, expected to show an increase by 345,000, compared to the prior rise of 346,000.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI should appear at 15.00 BST and should show a rise to 54.3 points in June from May’s 53.7. Also around that time, the US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is scheduled to speak at a naturalization ceremony in Washington DC.

Last week’s crude oil inventories will be reported at 15.30 BST, with the number expected to drop by 2.6 million barrels. Ninety minutes later natural gas storage will follow, with expectations of an increase of some 90 billion cubic feet.
**GBP/USD**
Reported during the Asian session today, the UK BRC Shop Price Index y/y showed a drop of 0.2 percent in June, as against May’s 0.1 percent fall.

For release at 09.30 BST, UK services PMI is expected to register a decline to 54.6 points in June from the prior 54.9.
Also at that time, the Bank of England is to report on its latest credit conditions survey, with detailed information on secured and unsecured lending to households, small businesses, non-financial corporations, and non-bank financial firms.
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**USD/JPY**
The Bank of Japan is today offering bonds in tranches of ¥100 billion (1-3-years), ¥400 billion (3-5-years), and ¥450 billion (5-10-years).
The Nikkei 225 index shed 0.31 percent today.
And S&P 500 September futures fell today to 1,606.
The pair is currently trading at 100.72, seemingly stable above the psychological 100.00 mark.
**AUD/USD**
The AIG Services Index was released at 00.30 BST today, showing a rise to 41.5 points in June from 40.6 in May.
At 02.00 BST, HIA’s New Home Sales m/m showed an increase of 1.6 percent in May, as against April’s rise of 3.9 percent.
Half an hour later, Australian retail sales m/m were reported to have increased by 0.1 percent in May, well off the expected 0.4 percent rise but a recovery of sorts from April’s 0.1 percent contraction (revised down from a 0.2 percent gain). At the same time, Australia’s trade balance for May came out at a A$0.67 billion surplus, compared to the expected A$0.05 billion in plus and the prior A$0.17 billion surplus (revised up from A$0.03 billion above the zero).
The RBA Governor Glenn Stevens spoke earlier today at the Economic Society of Australia’s 2013 Business Luncheon in Brisbane. He expressed the view that the country’s recent economic growth is likely to continue.
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**USD/CAD**
Canada’s trade balance for May is due out at 13.30 BST today and is expected to show a deficit of C$0.77 billion, compared to the prior deficit of C$0.60 billion.
The market for the Canadian dollar will also be anticipating Friday’s releases on Canadian employment change and the unemployment rate.
At the moment the pair is changing hands around 1.0551.
**USD/CHF**
No economic data of any significance for this pair is scheduled for today from Switzerland. The Swiss franc will likely be influenced by Friday’s Swiss CPI m/m, which is expected to register a fall of 0.1 percent in June.
The pair is currently residing at 0.9504, with a rise expected today should US economic data prove positive.

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