Forex: Daily outlook: US Independence Day

on Jul 4, 2013


The Eurozone Q1 final GDP q/q is to be released at 10.00 BST today. In the prior period the final GDP recorded a drop of 0.2 percent.
Today in France, a 10-year bond auction will be conducted by the French Treasury Agency.
At 12.45 BST the European Central Bank is to announce its interest rate decision. Expectations are that the cash rate won’t change from the current 0.50 percent. The ECB is scheduled to hold a press conference at 13.30 BST.

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US banks will be shut today due to the country’s Independence Day holiday.
The UK Halifax HPI m/m is due out at 08.00 BST and is expected to show 0.4 percent growth, which would match the prior period’s outcome.
At 12.00 BST the Bank of England is to announce its decisions on the asset purchase facility, which is expected to be kept at £375 billion, and on the cash interest rate, which is also anticipated to be left at the current level (0.50 percent).

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At 01.30 today, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda spoke at a Branch Managers Meeting in Tokyo, stating that Japan’s economy is recovering and that the easing program is working but will continue until the target of two percent inflation is reached.

At 04.45 BST, Japan’s Ministry of Finance conducted an auction of ¥548 billion in 1.9 percent 30-year notes with an average yield of 1.89 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.96. At the previous auction the numbers were 1.86 and 4.06 respectively.
The Nikkei 225 index has fallen so far today by 0.15 percent.
Australian May building approvals m/m came out at 02.30 BST, showing a decline by 1.1 percent, worse than the expected 0.9 percent reduction and well down on April’s growth of 9.5 percent.

LME copper prices yesterday fell by 0.8 percent to $6922.0/MT, with aluminium down by 1.0 percent to $1774.5/MT.
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Today’s economic calendar lacks releases from both Canada and USA and along with the American holiday only sluggish trade is expected for the pair.
Due out tomorrow from Canada are June employment change, unemployment rate, and the Ivey PMI. From south of the border will be June reports on US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.
At press time the pair has taken up residence at 1.0513.
There are no economic releases scheduled today from either Switzerland or the USA, which suggests that slow trading is in prospect.
Tomorrow will see June reports for Swiss foreign currency reserves and CPI m/m. The consumer price index is expected to show a drop of 0.1 percent.
At the moment the pair is staying at 0.9479.


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