Forex: Weekly outlook 08 – 12 July

on Jul 8, 2013

**Monday, 08 July** Monday July 8th:_ The week started with an update on Japan’s bank lending for June y/y and the Trade Balance – BOP Basis data for May, both announced at 00:50 BST today. Bank lending rose 1.9 percent, following an 1.8 percent rise in the prior month, and recorded its biggest annual increase in four years.

Japan’s trade deficit on a balance of payments basis widened to ¥906.7 billion in May, well up April’s shortfall of ¥818.8 billion.

At 06:45 BST the Swiss unemployment rate for June m/m came out unchanged at 3.2 percent, in line with analysts’ expectations.
Later in the day ECB President Mario Draghi is to appear before the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, at hearings being held in Brussels.
The Bank of Canada is due to announce its Business Outlook Survey for the second quarter of the year at 15:30 BST.

From the US, Consumer Credit Change data for May is scheduled for 20:00 BST. New Zealand’s Electronic Card Retail Sales for May m/m is due out at 23:45 BST.
**Tuesday, 09 July**
The RICS UK Housing Price Balance data for June is scheduled for release at 00:01 BST, followed by the monthly reading of the Chinese CPI for May.
At 02:30 BST the National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence data for June is due to be released, along with China’s PPI for June y/y.

The preliminary reading for Japan’s Machine Tool Orders for June y/y is expected out at 07:00 BST.
In UK releases, the market will note several updates: the monthly and annual readings of Industrial Production data and Manufacturing Production, Total Trade Balance and Goods Trade Balance, all for May.
Canadian Housing Starts for June y/y are due out at 13:15.

At 15:00 BST the UK’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research is scheduled to announce its GDP estimate for the April-June quarter.
**Wednesday, 10 July**
The day will start with the monthly reading of Japan’s Tertiary Industry Index for May at 00:50 BST, followed by the Westpac Australian Consumer Confidence data for July, scheduled for 01:30 BST.
Later in the day China is due to announce June y/y export and imports data and new loans data also for June.
At 07:00 BST Germany’s CPI for May y/y is due to be published. Forecasts are for a 1.9 percent rise from 1.6 percent in the prior month.
The most significant event for the day is the policy meeting of the US Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee scheduled for 19:00 BST.
**Thursday, 11 July**
Australian employment data for June is due to be released at 02:30 BST. Analyst expectations are for unemployment to have risen to 5.6 percent in June, from May’s 5.5 percent.
The Bank of Japan is to publish its Interest Rate Decision at 04:00 BST, to be followed by a press conference with the central bank’s governor Haruhiko Kuroda in Tokyo.
At 09:00 BST the ECB will publish its monthly report, with a detailed analysis of the prevailing economic situation and the risks to price stability.
And at 13:30 BST the Canadian New Housing Price Index data for May y/y and m/m is due to be released.
**Friday, 12 July**
Australian Home Loans is expected at 02:30 BST, with forecasts for a rise of 2.5 percent, as against 0.8 percent in the prior month.
Japan’s Industrial Production for May y/y should be revealed at 05.30 BST.
10.00 BST will see release of Eurozone Industrial Production for May y/y and m/m and US PPI data for June, also on an annual and monthly basis.
The final significant announcement for the week is scheduled for 14:55 BST with the July preliminary reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.