Forex: Daily wrap-up: First-time US jobless disappoints at 360k

on Jul 11, 2013
Listen Thursday July 11th_:

The German wholesale price index m/m was announced at 07.00 BST today, showing a 0.4 percent drop in June, against the expected rise of 0.3 percent, and matching the prior period’s decline. At 07.45 BST emerged the French CPI m/m, revealing a 0.2 percent rise in June, exceeding both the forecast and the prior 0.1 percent increase.
The European Central Bank released its latest monthly bulletin, containing the hint that the interest rates may be lowered if needed.

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The US unemployment claims report was released at 13.30 BST today and revealed that 360,000 individuals filed for first-time unemployment insurance during the week to July 5. Analysts had forecast 342,000 and the number was also well up on the prior week’s 344,000.
Also released at 13.30 BST, US import prices showed a 0.2 percent fall in June, as against the expected rise of 0.1 percent and the prior 0.7 percent drop.

US natural gas storage for the w/e July 5 was reported as having risen by 82 billion cubic feet.
US Treasury Direct is due to announce the results of a 30-year bond auction at 18.00 BST and the Federal Budget Balance is due out at 19.00 BST.
At 10.42 BST today the UK Debt Management Office announced the results of its latest 30-year bond auction. The gilts went into the market at a 3.55 percent average interest rate and 1.7 bid-to-cover ratio.

Longstanding BOE Monetary Policy Committee member David Miles stated today that the MPC is acutely aware of the potential impact of any BoE interest rate rise on UK households. He expressed the view that there is no inevitable connection with a rise in retail mortgage rates.

Japan’s core machinery orders m/m rose by 10.5 percent in May, well up on the expected increase of 1.9 percent. The prior period had shown an 8.8 percent fall.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Monetary Policy Statement, released today, revealed that the Japanese economy has started to recover and that no further stimulus would be added at this juncture. At the BOJ’s later press conference, governor Haruhiko Kuroda expressed the view that the central bank’s two percent inflation target remained achievable and that despite continuing stagnation in Japanese wages the overall employment situation had been getting better.
The Melbourne Institute today announced that inflationary expectations in June for the year ahead had come in at 2.6 percent. The prior period’s view was for 2.3 percent.
Australian employment change data also released today surprisingly showed 10,300 new jobs in June, in a different realm from the expected growth of 300 and the prior period fall of 700. The unemployment rate in June nonetheless rose slightly, to 5.7 percent from the prior 5.6 percent, revised up from 5.5 percent.

Statistics Canada released the May new housing price index (NHPI) at 13.30 BST today, showing a rise of 0.1 percent in May, as against the forecast rise of 0.3 percent and the prior 0.2 percent increase.
The pair is currently trading at 1.0395, close to the day’s opening price.
There were no significant economic updates from Switzerland today and tomorrow’s fundamental calendar is also Swiss-free.
The pair was highly impacted yesterday by US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s clear intimation that key interest rates will almost certainly not be raised until the US unemployment rate falls to the Fed’s policy target, an entire percentage point away.
Currently the pair is trading at 0.9496, 0.23 percent up on the day’s opening price.


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