Forex: AUD/USD – Limited joy for aussie in US updates

on Jul 25, 2013
Listen Thursday July 25th: The Australian dollar had been rising against the USD, reaching 0.9196, prior to release of the weekly US jobless claims report at 13:30 BST. The numbers came out below expectations, but the aussie lacked the muscle to take advantage and break 0.92.

The pair had yesterday fallen to 0.9131 when the Australian Consumer Price Index came out below expectations, followed by a preliminary reading of HSBC’s China Manufacturing PMI down in July to an 11-month low.
According to the US Department of Labor, first-time applicants for regular state unemployment insurance benefits rose by 7,000 last week (ended July 19) to a seasonally adjusted 343,000, slightly worse than expectations for 340,000 and up from 336,000 in the previous week.

Continuing insured unemployment claims fell by 119,000 to a seasonally adjusted 2.997 million in the prior week (that ended July 13), from 3.116 million in the week before.
Bigger picture-wise though, the US labour market is improving, with private sector layoffs slowing down, encouraging expectations for a sooner rather than later uplift in consumer spending.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in testimony before Congress last week that “the job situation is far from satisfactory” and the new numbers won’t have caused him to recalibrate that assessment. It’s apparent from both his recent remarks and those of other FOMC members that substantial and persistent improvement in jobless claims will be needed before QE ‘tapering’ becomes a reality.
On a more positive note in the US today, orders for durable goods rose more than forecast in June, by 4.2 percent versus the expected 0.5 percent, pointing to a pickup in manufacturing that should help the economy accelerate in the second half of the year.


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