Forex: EUR/USD – Five-week high at 1.3295

Written by: Violina Todorova
July 26, 2013 Friday July 26th:_ So far in European trading today the euro has remained stronger against the US dollar, with the pair rising to a five-week high at 1.3295, increasing 28 pips so far intraday.

Germany’s Import Price Index for June y/y was released earlier today, reporting a fall by 2.2 percent, as against May’s -2.9 and -3.2 from April. On a monthly basis the index decreased by 0.8 percent in June, following May’s -0.4 percent. Excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, the index of import prices was 2.6 percent below the level of a year earlier (-0.8 percent in the May year).

Export prices dropped by 0.6 percent in June on an annual basis. In May and April the annual rate of change was –0.5 and –0.4 percent respectively. Month-on-month, the index fell by 0.4 percent.
From the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the Bank of Italy today, the Eurocoin indicator came out as up to minus 0.9 percent this month from minus 0.18 percent in the prior month and reaching its highest level since the first half of 2012.

The index is one of the earliest measures of economic activity in the Eurozone and the rise is consistent with other recent indicators of improvement in the combined economy of the 17 member countries.
According to CEPR and the Bank of Italy the Eurocoin index is up on “the favourable signs coming from the surveys of households and firms and from the easing of tensions in the financial markets”.

In European trading yesterday the EUR/USD dropped to a two-day low at 1.3267 but late in the American session the quote retraced to what proved to be the day’s high at 1.3294, its highest exchange rate since June 20.
The Eurozone economic news started yesterday with M3 money supply data, 2.8 percent down in the three months to June, after 2.9 percent the prior period.
The German IFO – Business Climate Index came out as a rise to 106.2 in July from June’s 105.9 The country’s IFO – Current Assessment Index was up at 110.1, versus June’s 109.4 and above forecasts for 110.0. IFO – Expectations fell slightly to 102.4 from the prior 102.5 and against expectations for no change.

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