Forex: USD/CHF – Looking again towards all-time low?

on Jul 30, 2013
Listen Tuesday July 30th_: Yesterday the USD/CHF gained 0.29 percent intraday, closing at 0.9309. Today during Asian trading the pair reached what remains an intraday high at 0.9323 (also being a minor resistance level) and has since been dropping steeply. At the moment the price is residing at 0.9274, breaking the 76.4 percent Fibo retracement of 0.9129 to 0.9750 at 0.9276.

Resistance has been encountered today at the 89-hour simple moving average, causing a retreat. If the descent were to continue, the price would be testing last Friday’s low of 0.9262, below which the path is opened for the 13 June low of 0.9129.
Today the MA89 crossed below the MA200 on the 4H chart, indicating that the price is in a medium term downtrend and may decrease further.

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On the other hand, the price action is still moving within a valid falling wedge pattern, which could reverse the recent downtick sharply. In that event the pair might be on its way towards the 9 July high of 0.9750.
Since the all-time high at 1.8309 at the end of the year 2000, the USD/CHF was in a downtrend to the all-time low of 0.7066 reached in the middle of 2011. The trend since then has been one of retracement and resistance at the 23.6 percent Fibo level at 0.9719 may signal the end of the rebound, causing the quote to again tumble.


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