EUR/USD – Euro holding at key support

on Sep 2, 2013
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**iNVEZZ.com, Monday 2 September:**

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An order book model compiled by Commerzbank illustrates the estimated net buy and sell orders for the euro from August 2012 (left chart) and since 16 August this year. The bank’s analysis shows that at the current spot price the density of buy orders exceeds that of sell orders. The projected equilibrium area is 1.33, where the pressure from bulls will wane. Commerzbank’s study of the euro order book confirms the strong resistance around the 1.345-35 area, which has over the past six months been providing an obstacle to any uptrend.

!fm[](/uploads/story/5235/82.png)

According to the Commerzbank authors, a failure of the 1.3186 support will confirm the top and the market will sell off to the first stop at 1.302, before testing 1.29. And today, UBS revised its stance on the euro down from bullish to neutral, indicating its view that a close below 1.3186 would expose 1.302 as well.

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The EUR/USD continues to hold above the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2754 to 1.3451 at 1.3185. The current bearish momentum seems to be diminishing, with the Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart edging above the oversold territory of 30. Right now, the pair is holding around 1.3207, 0.12 percent down intraday.

Levels of resistance today: 1.3228, 1.3254 and 1.3280.
Levels of support: 1.3203, 1.3186 and 1.3172.
!fm[](/uploads/story/5235/87.png)

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Currency Briefing: Euro falls to five-week lows against the dollar EUR/USD– ECB to increase its GDP growth forecast?

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http://nvz.bz/17VvWbn

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