AUD/USD – Sizeable Oz trade deficit rattling bulls

on Sep 5, 2013
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**iNVEZZ.com, Thursday, 5 September:**

Australia’s Trade Balance for July clocked in today with a deficit of A$765 million, greatly surprising a forex market which had been led to believe a modest surplus of A$110 million was in store. Exacerbating things was a revision of the prior period surplus down from A$602 million to A$243 million. Contrary to expectations, July proved to be flat in exports growth, while imports increased by 4 percent.

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Just prior to release of the data, at 02.30 BST, the AUD/USD completed a double top at 0.9188, and when the news sank in the Australian dollar started falling. The currency pair is now approaching the trend-line projected from 30 August, which has been capping any downtick so far this week.

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The most recent corrective wave also found support at the trend line outlined from 5 August (a three-year low at 0.8846). On that occasion however, once the uptrend had escalated similarly to yesterday’s accelerated surge and found a top around 0.9221 on 12 August, the impulsive decline bounced again from the trend line. The recovery was transitory though and the pair quickly dropped below the key support. Then as retail traders sought a downtrend, the pair reversed for the final conclusion of a volatile double top.

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This retrospective analysis of the latest rise of the AUD/USD is offered as a quick guide for traders as to what might eventually happen around the trend line, given that financial markets evolve from experience and that the most recent wave has been the source of the current uptrend.
Right now, the Australian dollar is holding around 0.9141, some 0.37 percent down so far today.
Resistances today: 0.9155, 0.9188 and 0.9206.
Supports: 0.9122, 0.9105 and 0.9074.

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