Forex: USD/CHF at 23.6% Fibo retracement of long-term downtrend

on Nov 22, 2013
Updated: Oct 21, 2019

**, Friday 22 November:**

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So far today, the USD/CHF has continued to decline with the pair reaching a two-day low of 0.9099 at the start of London trading. The pair is currently holding just below the critical support of 0.9114, which is the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the six-month downtrend from 0.9839. The psychological level is also in near convergence with 38.2 percent Fibo from the two-year low of 0.889 to 0.9249.

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The technical confluence has so far rejuvenated the bulls, but momentum is still trending lower as indicated by the Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart. The impetus gauge may find support around its trend line, projected from 19 September, which has limited short-sellers in the last two months. If the USD/CHF indeed slips further, the first strong support could be anticipated around the 200-day Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, which invigorated the bulls earlier this week.

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Contrariwise, a potential upswing could struggle if it approaches the 100-day SMA, which has been a sufficient resistance for the quote in the last four months.
Back to the fundamentals, Kansas Fed president Esther George is scheduled to hold a speech about banking supervision in Paris at 13.40 UTC. The Q&A session would be the highlight of the event as the FOMC voting member may drop subtle clues regarding the future of US monetary policy. Ms George has been widely perceived by the markets as a hawkish member due to her prior dissents against further quantitative easing.

The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey for September is due out at 15.00 UTC, with expectations for a decline to 3.830 million from August’s 3.883 million.
Right now, the USD/CHF is trading around 0.9105, down 0.26 percent intraday.
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