Forex: USD/JPY: Japan’s Consumer Confidence up but disappointing

on Dec 10, 2013
Updated: Oct 21, 2019
Listen Tuesday, December 10th:_ The USD/JPY yesterday opened at 102.97 and closed at 103.25 to gain 0.28 percent intraday, with a trading range from 102.87 to 103.33.

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Since yesterday the MACD (9, 12, 1) has been forming a divergence with the price action on the 1H chart, suggesting that the price may embark on a short-term retrace. Also the daily stochastic oscillator crossed above its 80-line and entered the overbought zone, further increasing the prospects of southbound travel for the pair.
However, the overall outlook remains bullish, with the 89- and 200-period simple moving averages floating below the price action on the weekly, daily, 4H and 1H time frames.

In today’s trading so far, the pair reached its highest level since 23 May at 103.38. The ongoing intraday low is at 103.15 and the quote is at the moment trading at 103.33.
Late yesterday UTC, Japan’s Ministry of Finance released its BSI (Business Survey Index) Manufacturing Index for the fourth quarter of the calendar year, showing a drop to 9.7 points from 15.2. Analysts had expected a rise to 17.2. Levels above zero indicate optimism and Q4 becomes the third consecutive quarter in optimistic territory.

In other Japanese news, Tertiary Industry Activity m/m, which measures the change in total value of services purchased by businesses, fell by 0.7 percent in October, whereas analysts had been expecting a 0.3 percent rise. The prior 0.2 percent decrease was revised up to zero.

M2 Money Stock y/y matched the consensus for a 4.3 percent increase in November and beat the prior 4.1 percent rise. This is the fastest rate of growth in the M2 aggregate since January 2003.
Consumer Confidence in November grew to 42.5 points from 41.2 but fell well short of market expectations for a rise to 44.2.
Preliminary Machine Tool Orders y/y grew by 15.4 percent in November, well up on the prior period’s 8.4 percent increase.

In the United States today, the November reading of the NFIB Small Business Index is due out at 12.30 UTC and October JOLTS Job Openings is scheduled for 15.00 UTC, along with October Wholesale Inventories m/m.
Resistances today: 103.50, 103.73 and 104.00.
Supports: 103.25, 103.00 and 102.80.
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