Forex: AUD/USD fundamental outlook for 16-20 December

on Dec 14, 2013
Updated: Oct 21, 2019
Listen Saturday, December 14th:_ Since 23 October the AUD/USD has been descending and has lost more than seven percent.

Next week the price may easily test the 5 August low of 0.8846. A breakthrough this level will continue the downtrend from the 11 April high of 1.0581.
The fall is expected with the Reserve Bank of Australia seeing the nation’s currency still “uncomfortably high” and wanting the AUD/USD below 0.8900.
Empire State Manufacturing Index is due to be released by the New York Fed at 13.30 UTC. Analysts expect a rise to 4.9 points in December from the prior -2.2. Values above zero indicate improving conditions.

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Markit US December Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers index is scheduled to be released at 14.00 UTC. Expectations are for a jump to 54.9. The prior reading of 54.7 points was revised up from 54.3.
The US Fed is due to release a report on November Industrial Production m/m at 14.15 UTC. Analysts are expecting a 0.6 percent lift. The prior period showed a 0.1 percent drop.

The Conference Board is due to announce its Leading Index m/m for October. The index rose by 0.3 percent in September.
Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Guy Debelle is due to participate in a panel discussion at the 24th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, in Sydney and which starts at 00.15 UTC.
The RBA is scheduled to publish a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes report is due out at 00.30 UTC.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to announce the November inflation data at 13.30 UTC with the release of the Consumer Price Index m/m, which is forecasted to rise by 0.1 percent. The same change is predicted for the Core CPI m/m, which excludes food and energy.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to report on Q3 Current Account at 13.30 UTC also. Analysts forecast the ongoing shortage to widen to $101 billion.

RBA governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Canberra at 22.30 UTC.
On this date the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting.

The US Census Bureau is due to issue Building Permits for November and the analysts’ expect an annualized number of 0.99 million. The report is due out at 13.30 UTC along with US November Housing Starts (forecast to stand at annualized 0.95 million).
The Census Bureau may release the delayed September and October Housing Starts data.
The FOMC is due to release its Economic Projections at 19.00 UTC, a report which includes the committee’s projection for inflation and economic growth over the next two years and a breakdown of individual FOMC member’s interest rate forecasts.
Simultaneously, the FOMC is due to announce its decision on the Federal Funds Rate, which is currently in the range zero to 0.25 percent, and more importantly its decision on whether there is going to be economic stimulus cuts or not.
The FOMC will explain its decisions at a press conference at 19.30 UTC.
The RBA is scheduled to publish its Bulletin for the fourth quarter. The report contains articles, statistical tables, speeches and detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions.
The US National Association of Realtors is due to issue a report on Existing Home Sales for November. Analysts forecast an annualized number of 5.04 million. The report is scheduled to be released at 15.00 UTC – the same time when the Philadelphia Fed is scheduled to announce its Manufacturing Index for December. The index is expected to grow to 10.3 points from the prior 6.5.
The US Final GDP q/q is scheduled to be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is expected the final value to match the initial 3.6 percent growth.
On this day the US Senate will vote to pass or reject the nomination of Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve Chairperson for a term from Feb 2014 to Jan 2018.
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