Forex: USD/CHF: Credit Suisse sees 1.5% rise in Swiss retail sales this year

on Jan 8, 2014
Updated: Oct 21, 2019
Listen Wednesday, January 8th:_ The USD/CHF today reached its highest point since 25 November, at 0.9126, following release of the ADP US Non-Farm Employment Change report showing 238,000 new jobs in December, well ahead of expectations for 200,000. The figure also surpassed the prior 229,000 increase, revised up from 215,000.

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From that high though, the pair has since depreciated to be currently at 0.9085. Since Monday this week, the price action has been forming a divergence with the MACD (9, 12, 1) on the 4H scale, indicating weakening bullish sentiment. The quote has nevertheless been moving upwards since the low of 0.8798 reached on 27 December, also the lowest point since October 2011.

Credit Suisse bank today released its annual Retail Outlook, predicting that retail sales in the country will rise by 1.5 percent this year, well up on the flash 2013 reading of 0.5 percent growth.
Nearly three-quarters of the 218 respondents to the bank’s survey expected increased sales and over 50 percent of respondents were expecting higher earnings.

The bank said that the improvement would be supported by the prospect of reduced cross-border shopping and attendant benefit for domestic sales. The strong Swiss franc led to the spending of an estimated CHF4.5 billion last year in neighbouring countries, excluding holiday and online shopping.

The report notes that falling prices also had an impact. In the past two years, the spread between food prices in Switzerland and its neighbours has contracted from 46 to 37 percent.
Switzerland’s December Unemployment Rate is due out on Friday and is being picked to stay unchanged at 3.2 percent. Also on Friday, the Swiss Federal Statistical office reports the Consumer Price Index m/m for December, which analysts expect to be down 0.1 percent.

Heading north still, the USD/CHF could expect to encounter resistance at 0.9194, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from 0.9837 to 0.8798, and thereafter the 0.9200 psychological level.
Resistance levels today: 0.9120, 0.9140 and 0.9175.
Support levels: 0.9100, 0.9080 and 0.9070.


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