Forex: GBP/USD: RICS House Price Balance slides to 56 percent, pair close to yesterday’s low

on Jan 16, 2014
Updated: Oct 21, 2019
Listen Thursday, January 16th:_ The UK Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) published its House Price Balance, which showed that 56 percent of surveyors reported a rise in prices in December from November. The index fell from its prior level of 58 percent, while analysts had been expecting a rise to 59. However, the index remained above 50 for a fourth consecutive month, which is the first time this has happened since 2002.

RICS said that expectations for a rise in house prices in the future strengthened last month, induced by an insufficient supply of new homes on the market. Surveyors who foresee a rise in prices over the next three months were 61 percent, which is up from the 59 percent recorded in November and the strongest consensus since September 1999.
Data showed that house prices jumped in all areas of the UK last month.

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The UK housing market has been boosted by falling unemployment, low interest rates and government programmes to make mortgages cheaper and easier to obtain.
RICS’ sales-to-stock rate for December, which measures how tight the market is, reached its highest level since September 2007, at 35.2 percent, a rise from 34.6 percent in November.
“On the face of it, (the survey) seems like good news but unless we see a marked increase in the number of homes coming up for sale we could well be looking at price rises becoming unsustainable in some areas,” said Peter Bolton King, global residential director at RICS.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney yesterday said UK house prices were likely to continue to rise strongly until the middle of 2015, as part of a broader upturn in housing market activity.

The decline in RICS’ index comes after a survey from mortgage lender Halifax last week, which revealed that house prices fell unexpectedly by 0.6 percent last month.

The GBP/USD has thus far today been trading within the range 1.6373 to 1.6327 and is currently at 1.6330.
Bears will be attempting to push the price through yesterday’s low of 1.6321 – the lowest since 24 December – and if this level is breached, the next target will be the 17 December low of 1.6217.
Volatility is likely to increase after the US data releases at 13.30 UTC today. The Consumer Price Index is forecast to grow by 0.3 percent in December, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy items) is expected to rise by 0.1 percent.
A separate report will show last week’s Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims. Analysts expect a number of 328,000.
Today’s resistances: 1.6380, 1.6415 and 1.6455.
Supports: 1.6350, 1.6300 and 1.6255.


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