Monero Analysis (XMR/USD) December 1, 2017

on Nov 30, 2017

If there is one thing that is hoarding headlines then it got to be the record breaking highs BTC is trading at. In my opinion, BTC is quickly evolving into a store of value and not as a medium of decentralized exchange as it was originally meant to be. That is why prices keep going up despite the high transactional costs involved.

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 Secondly, because of increasing validation from governments, BTC is likely to gain traction more as a digital asset subject to relevant taxes. Of course governments are beginning to realize that it is better to accept the existence of crypto-coins and get extra revenue than attack them and lose everything because at the end of the day, they are not going anywhere.

Well, this realization lead to the search of the next big coin in the crypto-sphere. We all know BCH is the next preferred alternative but it is turning out that Monero is also inching up just by checking its capitalization at around $3B and spot rate.

Technically, August’s highs were cleared following that bounce from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. For this buy trend to be sustained, this week’s close must be above the $165 to validate this break above and stamp the increasing buy momentum as the stochastic shows in the weekly chart. Ideal take profit is around $250 as projected by the Fibonacci extension tool.

In the daily chart, the continuation of the weekly bull-run is conditional. We have this double bar bear reversal pattern turning from deep the overbought territory with complementing sell stochastics. One thing is certain, without sentiment, this would have been a perfect opportunity to short because of this reversal at double tops-around August highs-but since the weekly chart is very bullish, we shall wait for bearish or bullish confirmation today. If prices close below August highs then tomorrow we initiate short positions in the 4HR chart.

Well, in our entry chart, price action is still trending within yesterday’s bearish engulfing candlestick. Monero is also rebounding from around August highs between $155 and $170 support lines. We also note that the 20 period MA which has been a reliable support was broken through yesterday.

The thing now is to wait for confirmation and see if prices will close below the lower limit of our support line at around $150 by end of the day. Thereafter, the short term trend would have been defined and we can enter accordingly.