Big Week Ahead for Currency Traders

The 21st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting start today, potentially influencing the WTI crude oil price. The jobs data in Canada and the United States are expected to move financial markets.

The trading week starts with an important event for oil traders – the 21st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting. The so-called OPEC+ group of countries considers options for releasing more oil to the market. Oil prices keep rising, threatening to break to a new 2021 high, on the back of solid demand as economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic shock.

For currency traders, the oil price is important because it is directly linked to inflation and inflation expectations. Rising oil prices lead to higher prices for goods and services, thus directly influencing central banks’ decisions regarding interest rates.

Another important event for currency traders this week is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Statement. The central bank is expected to hike the Official Cash Rate from +0.25% to +0.5%, officially becoming the first central bank in the developed economies to lift the rates after slashing them to zero or below.

One day later, on Wednesday, the ADP private payrolls numbers are released in the United States. The data is viewed by currency traders as a preview of the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for release two days later.

The market expects the U.S. economy to have added 490,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate to decline further, reaching 5.1% compared to the 5.2% in the previous month.  The unemployment rate is also forecast to drop in Canada, and the release is scheduled at the same time as the U.S. jobs data on Friday.

All in all, a busy week ahead, full of economic data and market events that may impact the currency market’s volatility. As always during the NFP week, volatility is set to rise the most during the last trading day of the week.