GBP/USD prediction ahead of the UK jobs and US inflation data

on Oct 12, 2021

The GBP/USD price was under pressure on Tuesday morning as investors waited for the upcoming UK jobs and US inflation data. The pair declined to a low of 1.3586, which was a few pips below last week’s high of 1.3570.

UK jobs numbers ahead

The UK has been in the spotlight in the past few weeks as investors watch the ongoing energy crisis and the labour shortage. 

Therefore, the market will be watching the latest UK jobs numbers that will come out in the morning session. These numbers will be relatively outdated since they are for the month of May. Still, they will provide more colour about the trends in the labour market.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the country’s unemployment rate declined from 4.6% in July to 4.5% in August. This will be the lowest figure since the Covid pandemic started.

They also expect the data to show that the economy added more than 243k jobs in the three months to August. This will be a bit better than the previous 183k. At the same time, the average earnings without bonus is expected to have risen by 6.0%. Bonuses included, analysts expect the data to show that earnings rose by 7.0%.

The next key data for the GBP/USD will be the US Jolts job vacancies numbers. Analysts expect these numbers to show that vacancies jumped to more than 10 million. This is notable since the country added the lowest number of workers in September. The US will next publish the latest consumer price index data on Wednesday.

GBP/USD forecast


The four-hour chart shows that the GBP/USD pair was little changed in the morning as investors wait for the UK jobs numbers. It is trading at 1.3597, which is slightly below the 38.2% retracement level. The pair has also formed a bullish flag pattern and is slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It also seems like it is forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Therefore, the pair will likely break out higher as bulls target the 50% retracement level at 1.3695.


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