NZD/USD forecast: on the verge of a major bearish breakout

on Oct 12, 2021
  • The NZD/USD pair declined after the latest New Zealand retail sales data.
  • The numbers showed that the country’s electronic sales rose by 0.9% in September.
  • It appears like it is on the verge of a major bearish breakout.

Follow Invezz on Telegram, Twitter, and Google News for instant updates >

The NZD/USD price declined slightly after the latest New Zealand electronic card sales numbers published on Tuesday. The pair is trading at 0.6930, which is lower than last week’s high of 0.6970. 

New Zealand retail sales

Retail sales are an important component of most countries since they are a crucial measure of consumer spending. The sector is also one of the biggest employers in most countries. 

In a report, New Zealand’s statistics agency said that electronic card sales rose from -19.7% in August to 0.9% in September. The sales declined by 14.9% on a year-on-year basis. This performance was mostly because of the country’s lockdown that happened in a bid to reduce the number of Covid cases.

Still, analysts believe that the country’s economy will improve in the near term as the country reopens its economy. 

Additional data showed that external migration declined by 44% in August after rising by 767% in the previous month. Precisely, the number of foreign arrivals declined from 1,096 to 353. The situation will also improve as the country reopens its borders.

In its last interest rate decision, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to hike interest rates in a sign of confidence for the economy.

The NZD/USD pair will next react to the latest US JOLTS job openings data scheduled for Tuesday. The data is expected to show that the country has more than 10.92 million vacancies even as employers struggle to find workers. The biggest catalyst for the pair will be the latest US consumer inflation data scheduled for Tuesday.

NZD/USD forecast


The NZD/USD remained under pressure after the latest New Zealand sales numbers. The pair is trading at 0.6930, which is along the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also moved below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. It is along the ascending trendline that is shown in green. 

Therefore, the pair seems like it is on the verge of a major bearish breakout. If this happens, the next key level to watch will be 0.6900.


Looking to capitalise on rising & falling USD, GBP, EUR rates? Trade forex in minutes with our top-rated broker, eToro.


77% of retail CFD accounts lose money.