USD/CNY forecast as China trade surplus spikes

By: Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga
Crispus is an active trader, where he is followed and copied at He lives in Nairobi with his… read more.
on Oct 13, 2021
  • The USD/CNY price retreated slightly after the latest China trade numbers.
  • The country’s trade surplus widened to $66 billion in September.
  • This happened as exports jumped by 28.1% while imports fell to 17.6%.

The USD/CNY price tilted lower after the relatively strong China trade surplus numbers published on Wednesday morning. The pair declined to 6.4450, which was slightly lower than Tuesday’s high of 6.4593.

China trade numbers

The Chinese economy held steady in September even as major challenges remained. Data by the statistics agency showed that the country’s exports rose from 25.6% in August to 28.1% in September. This number was better than the median estimate of 21.0%. 

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It was also surprising considering that the world is seeing significant logistics challenges such as port delays and higher costs. 

Meanwhile, Chinese imports rose by 17.6% in September after rising by 33.1% in the previous month. This decline was mostly because of the government’s controls of key imports like iron ore as it attempted to control prices. 

As a result, the country’s trade surplus jumped sharply in September. The country had a total trade surplus of more than $66.76 billion, which was substantially higher than the previous month’s high of $58.34 billion. 

In September, the Chinese economy also faced challenges with its real estate market as Evergrande remained under pressure. Since then, several other property developers have missed paying their debt. As such, since the property sector is so important in the country, there is a likelihood that the economic growth will start slowing down.

Later today, the USD/CNY pair will react to the latest US inflation data. The numbers are expected to show that consumer prices rose by 5.3% in September while core CPI rose by 4.0%. These data will come a few days after the US published the relatively mixed non-farm payrolls data.

USD/CNY forecast


The daily chart shows that the USD/CNY price has been in a tight range recently. It is currently trading at 6.4459, where it has been in the past few days. The pair remains along the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. 

The pair is also slightly above the important support at 6.4323, which was the lowest level in September. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range for a while and then break out lower.

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