Crude oil price prediction with the OPEC+ meeting in focus

By: Faith Maina
Faith Maina
Faith strives to break down complex developments so investors can make better informed decisions. When Faith is not immersed… read more.
on Jan 4, 2022
  • Crude oil price is hovering below $80 per barrel.
  • Investors await further cues from the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Tuesday.
  • The alliance is expected to continue increase production by 400,000 bpd in February.

Crude oil price is hovering below the psychologically crucial level of $80 per barrel, which has been the case since late last week. Investors are keen on the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Tuesday.

OPEC+ meeting

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, which is jointly referred to as OPEC+, is scheduled for a meeting on Tuesday. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will commence its meeting at 1200 GMT while the ministerial meeting is set for 1300 GMT via a videoconference.  

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Investors expect the alliance to continue its modest output increase of 400,000 bpd in February. OPEC+ has gradually restored the supplies that got shuttered at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. During a preliminary meeting on Monday, the organization’s analysts lowered their estimates for the expected surplus in Q1’22. They forecast a reduction in supply growth from its rivals.

So far, OPEC+ has restored about two-thirds of the output it halted in 2020. It is keen on revamping production at a pace that will sustain a healthy demand/supply balance. Based on the recent crude oil price movements, they have succeeded in avoiding a nosedive similar to the one observed in 2020.   

Crude oil price prediction

Crude oil price is trading within a rather tight range as investors await further cues from the OPEC+ meeting. At the time of writing, Brent futures were up by 0.44% at 79.24. Notably, it has been hovering below the psychologically crucial level of 80 since late last week.

On a four-hour chart, it is trading slightly above the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. It is also trading above the long-term 200-day EMA.

In the immediate term, crude oil price will likely remain in the range of between the 25-day EMA at 78.59 and the crucial resistance zone of 80. As a reaction to the OPEC policy decision, it may break the aforementioned resistance to 82.02. Above that level, 83 will be a viable target for the bulls. On the flip side, a move below the current support zone may have the bears push crude oil price to along the 200-day EMA to 76.96.

crude oil price
crude oil price
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