AUD/NZD, AUD/USD analysis ahead of May RBA decision

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on May 1, 2023
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  • The Australian dollar moved upwards ahead of the RBA decision.
  • The Federal Reserve will also publish its interest rate decision on Wednesday.
  • Analysts expect the RBA will leave rates unchanged while the Fed will hike by 0.25%.

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The AUD/NZD and AUD/USD drifted upwards ahead of the upcoming RBA interest rate decision. The AUD/USD price jumped to a high of 0.6643, the highest point since April 25. AUD/NZD, rose to a high of 1.0745, which is higher than last month’s low of 1.0682.

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RBA interest rate decision

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One of the biggest forex news this week will be the upcoming interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia scheduled for Tuesday this week. This will be an important decision since it comes on the same week that the government will unveil its budget.

Economists expect the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.60% as it continues to observe the state of the economy after the recent rate hikes. The decision will come after data showed that the country’s inflation is easing. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that inflation dropped from 6.8% to 6.3%. Core inflation also continued falling. In a note, an analyst at ANZ said:

“Australia’s trimmed mean inflation came in lower than expected at 6.6 per cent year-on-year. This supports our view that the RBA will maintain the cash rate at 3.60 per cent at its May meeting.”

The RBA decision will come a day ahead of the Federal Reserve delivers its interest rate decision. As I wrote in this article, analysts expect that the bank will hike interest rates by 0.25% in this meeting. It will also point to a pause in the coming months. 

AUD/NZD technical analysis

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The 4H chart shows that the AUD/NZD exchange rate has drifted upwards in the past few days. It has moved from a low of 1.0682 to a high of 1.0750. 

The pair has moved to the major S&R pivot point of the Murrey Math Lines. It has moved below the 50-period moving average while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the neutral point at 50. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the AUD to NZD pair will continue rising as buyers target the key resistance at 1.080, the highest point in  March and early April.

AUD/USD technical analysis

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The 4H chart shows that the AUD/USD price has drifted upwards in the past few days. It has moved from a low of 0.6576 to a high of 0.6650. The pair has also jumped above the key resistance level at 0.6618, the lowest point on April 10. It has moved below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support at 0.6570. 

AUD/USD chart by TradingView

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AUD NZD Reserve Bank of Australia USD Australasia Forex