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Monero Analysis (XMR/USD) February 8, 2018

Like BTC, DASH and a whole lot of other cryptocurrencies, Monero is on a slide. Now will this slide abate? Technically, it seems farfetched and when we factor in the pace at which this depreciation happened, then it will likely take weeks if not months for volatility and FUD to slow down. Monero bears are trading below the middle BB in the weekly chart and that’s not all.

Relative to previous price action, prices tested August 2017 highs earlier in the week. It might spell doom for this coin because two things can pan out. Either prices might continue with their slide say back to October lows of $75 or recover and trend back higher as the third phase (Trend Resumption) of the bullish break out pattern begins.

Remember, even if bear pressure is high, we must realize that we can as well be playing within a larger bull break out pattern that begun on late November 2017 when bulls surged past this strong resistance line.

If this bear pressure continues like this then prices might end up closing below $175 and today’s close will be the final roll of the dice for Monero or the beginning of a short to medium term price recovery. Of course, that is dependent on many technical and fundamental factors but if it does well, it’s welcomed and that is so despite yesterday’s bullish candlestick and a relieving double bar bullish reversal pattern.

At the moment, we have to wait and see if 78.6% Fibonacci retracement will remain as our support and if today prices will end up higher.

If we refer to the stochastics to gauge momentum then you notice that yesterday’s higher highs was really a follow through of a bullish divergence pattern. Check February 2 and 6 lows and see that while prices were reducing stochastics were actually moving higher.

Well, I’m not saying we load up but even if we do that, then it should be incremental and dependent on if today’s prices close above the first layer of resistance offered by the middle BB.

After that, buyers can decide to go long after Monero prices close above the minor resistance trend line.

Otherwise, any signs of liquidation at these minor levels then we shall have to sell at every highs as we are still knee deep in a bear move.


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