Forex EUR/USD

All eyes on French/German PMIs ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday

  • German flash manufacturing PMI may continue the fall in the month of October.
  • French flash services PMI for October expected to hold steady.
  • ECB meeting likely to be uneventful; slight dovish stance anticipated.

According to the Forex analysts, the volatility in the market is going to be extreme today, Thursday, October 24th, 2019. Ahead of the ECB (European Central Bank) meeting that will shed light on the monetary policy, flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is going to be announced for France as well as for Germany. The PMIs mark the most significant economic figures for the month of October.

Following the Spanish employment rate that is set to be declared at 08:00 GMT +1, the market can be expected to make its first major move once the French flash services PMI and manufacturing PMI is announced at 08:15 GMT +1. With only a fifteen minutes gap, German flash services PMI and manufacturing PMI will also be revealed that can be anticipated to further advance the movement in the market.

German Manufacturing PMI Is Expected To Fall

While the German manufacturing PMI had found stability in the month of August, September had experienced a sharp decline that had contributed majorly to the drop in EUR/USD from which the pair has still not recovered fully. The forecast for German manufacturing PMI for the month of October has been highlighted as 42.0, however, it can be expected to continue the fall this month with the actual figure coming a little short of the estimate.

On the other hand, the figure for French flash services PMI has been forecasted upwards of 51. It is expected that the PMI will hold reasonably steady and the actual figure will align itself with the estimate.

ECB Meeting May Not Be As Eventful

The financial experts have further added that the PMIs for France and Germany are likely to drive a stronger movement in the Forex market specifically in the EUR/USD pair as compared to the ECB meeting that is set for later today. Since Mr. Draghi, the current president of the ECB has his term coming to an end with the departure of October, the meeting can be expected to revolve around celebrations of his 8 years of service to ECB.

The overall stance following the ECB meeting, however, is being anticipated to be dovish. This is primarily because of the rising concern of inflation in the upcoming months as well as the weaker growth patterns. Significant improvement for Q4 to be announced in today’s meeting is so far not in the books.

The EUR/USD pair has been trading within a range of 1.11 and 1.1175 for the past few days. It is currently reported at 1.1132 level. This is likely to change following the economics releases for today.

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