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EUR/USD Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Better Than Expected German IFO Survey

 

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD’s outlook is bearish today, as it builds a base between 1.2350- 1.2450.

 

Friday’s big drop suggests the downtrend could continue, with 1.2270 as a target.

 

Aside from technical indicators, we noticed that the euro had a slight corrective movement yesterday, following some better-than-expected data released from Germany. But, this was a temporarily movement, as the pair resumed its bearish trend.

 

Here are the major Resistance (R) & Support (S) levels for the EUR/USD:

 

 

 

S2 1.2300

S1 1.2370

Pivot Point 1.2420

R1 1.2455

R2 1.2495

 
 

 
     
 

 
       

As for today’s figures, we’ll start with Germany, where the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) announcement will be released at 07:00 GMT. It is the broadest measure of the economic activity. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.

  • Forecast: 0.1% 
  • Previous: 0.1% 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative for the EUR.

Moving to the UK, Bank of England’s (BOE) Governor, Mark Carney, is expected to speak today at 10:00 GMT. As the head of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which controls short term interest rates, Carney has more influence over Sterling’s value than any other person.

Traders scrutinize his speeches for clues regarding future monetary policy. His comments may spark a short-term positive or negative trend.

As for the U.S., the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) announcement is also scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT; measuring the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of the economic activity.

  • Forecast: 3.3% 
  • Previous: 3.5% 

Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency

The GDP is usually released on a monthly basis. There are 3 versions of the GDP: Advance, Second and Final releases. Both the Advance and the Second releases are mentioned as preliminary in the economic calendar.

At the same time, from Canada, the Core Retail Sales announcement will be released; measuring the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in Canada, excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending.

  • Forecast: 0.4% 
  • Previous: -0.3% 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative for the CAD.

The Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence index is scheduled for release at 15:00 GMT; measuring the level of consumer confidence in economic activity.

It is an important indicator of consumer spending. High readings indicate increased consumer optimism levels.

  • Forecast: 95.9 
  • Previous: 94.5 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative for the USD.

As for the energy market, data will be released today at 21:30 GMT. The American Petroleum Institute will report inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks. The figures show how much oil and products are available in storage. The indicator gives an overview of US petroleum demand.

API Weekly Crude Stock

  • Forecast:  N/A
  • Previous: 3.700 M 

API Weekly Distillates Stocks

  • Forecast:  N/A
  • Previous: -3.300 M

API Weekly Gasoline Stock

  • Forecast:  N/A
  • Previous: 0.519 M 

We wish you luck in your trading activities. For any further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact us at [email protected].   

Disclaimer The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance. Financial markets can move in either direction causing profits to be made or complete losses to be incurred by the trader. Each trader must decide for themselves what their risk appetite is and ensure that correct risk management procedures are in place before placing any trades. Engaging in CFDs or Spot FX carries a high risk to your capital. You should not engage in this form of investing unless you understand the nature of the Transaction you are entering into and the true extent of your exposure to the risk of loss. Your profit and loss will vary according to the extent of the fluctuations in the price of the underlying markets on which the trade is based.

 

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