Svag derivatsignal håller Cardano under $0.170

Cardano lost 28% of its value in the last seven days, losing its position in the market to become the 15th-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

Den har sjunkit under $0.1700-nivån, med sentimentet till stor del skakat av uttalanden från grundaren Charles Hoskinson, vilket kortvarigt förvärrade osäkerheten på marknaden innan det delvis klargjordes.

Cardano sjunker till 15:e plats på CMC-listan

Cardano var den 10:e största kryptovalutan efter marknadsvärde för några veckor sedan. Dock har den förlorat nästan $4 billion i marknadsvärde under den perioden och fallit till 15:e plats. 

ADA lost 30% of its value in the last seven days after Hoskinson posted “I’m taking a break, TTYL” on X, triggering confusion among investors. 

Grundaren av Cardano förtydligade dock senare i en livestream att han drog sig tillbaka från sociala medie-engagemang snarare än att lämna projektet, och betonade fortsatt engagemang i projektets långsiktiga utveckling.

Despite the clarification, ADA had already dropped sharply, reaching a low near $0.148, its weakest level since late 2020, before recovering modestly.

In addition to that, on-chain data suggests a divergence in large-holder behavior during the selloff.

According to Santiment supply distribution metrics, wallets holding 10M–100M ADA accumulated roughly 220 million ADA during the dip.

Meanwhile, wallets holding 100K–10M ADA collectively reduced exposure by about 140 million ADA.

Denna mätning indikerar att medan vissa stora investerare såg korrektionen som en köpmöjlighet fortsatte andra att distribuera innehav i svagheten.

In addition to that, the futures market metrics point to declining interest in ADA exposure.

Open interest has dropped to around $361 million, down significantly from a recent high of $585 million in May. 

Fallet återför deltagandet till nivåer som inte setts sedan slutet av 2024, vilket tyder på minskad spekulativ aktivitet.

Finally, ADA’s long-to-short ratio sits near 0.67, indicating a continued bearish tilt as traders position for further downside.

Cardano teknisk utsikt: Kommer ADA att hålla sig över $0.140?

ADA/USD 4-hour chart is extremely bearish as Cardano remains firmly in a downtrend.

At press time, ADA is trading at $0.167, below the 50-day EMA at $0.230, the 100-day EMA at $0.258, and the 200-day EMA at $0.330.

Momentum indicators continue to reflect weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below 50, indicating a bearish trend, while the MACD remains negative, signaling persistent bearish momentum.

If the bulls regain control, ADA could face major resistance at the 50-day EMA level ($0.232).

A daily candle close above this level would expose higher resistance zones at $0.258, $0.299, and $0.332 

However, if the selloff continues, Cardano could likely drop to the $0.140 support level in the near term.

While whale accumulation suggests some investors are positioning for a potential rebound, broader market structure remains fragile. 

Weak derivatives activity, heavy technical resistance overhead, and recent sentiment shocks indicate that any recovery in Cardano may remain limited unless buying pressure strengthens significantly in the near term.