Nvidia-aktien skakar inför rapporten – analytiker ser upp till 30% uppsida

Nvidia NVDA shares were down 0.3% at $216.74 in early Thursday trading, extending a period of relative underperformance.

The stock has risen 17% this year through Wednesday's close, well behind the 66% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index over the same period.

Nvidia's earnings report next Wednesday could help narrow that gap, with several analysts expecting the chipmaker to beat market expectations for the July quarter and raise its outlook for the current quarter.

Analytiker väntar starka resultat från Nvidia

Stifel-analytikern Ruben Roy upprepade den här veckan sitt kursmål på $282 för Nvidia i en forskningsanteckning.

Roy expects Nvidia to beat consensus expectations of adjusted earnings of $2.09 a share on revenue of $91.96 billion.

Hans kursmål baseras på ett P/E-tal om 22 gånger hans prognos för Nvidias räkenskapsårsresultat 2028.

Oppenheimer also reiterated an Outperform rating and $265 price target ahead of next week's earnings report.

Företaget förväntar sig uppsida i Nvidias resultat för andra kvartalet och utsikterna för tredje kvartalet, drivet av Blackwell Ultra.

Its next-generation VR200 is expected to ramp during the current quarter, supporting momentum in the second half of the year.

Oppenheimer projects more than $1 trillion in revenue from GB200, GB300 and VR200 between 2025 and 2027.

Företaget sade att Nvidia fortsatt behåller ledningen i prestanda per watt genom en årlig takt av introduktioner av AI-acceleratorer.

Oppenheimer also highlighted tokens per minute and cost per token as important measures of AI performance, saying Nvidia remains best in class in training and inference token generation and cost.

Företagets positiva syn bygger också på Nvidias fullstack AI-plattform, som inkluderar GPU:er, nätverksswitchar, NICs, InfiniBand, Ethernet, NVLink och CUDA.

Analysts at Morningstar also said they are looking for another "beat-and-raise" quarter from Nvidia, pointing to strong capital expenditure trends among hyperscalers and enterprises.

Morningstar has a $280 fair value estimate on Nvidia.

Finansieringsbekymmer kvar i fokus

Nvidia's relative underperformance this year has been driven in part by concerns surrounding AI spending, the company's financing arrangements and increasing competition across the semiconductor industry.

Analysts at Cantor pushed back against concerns that Nvidia is effectively buying revenue through its financial arrangements.

Företaget upprepade sin rekommendation Buy och sade att Nvidias senaste avtal är en "tydlig signal att den nuvarande AI-investeringscykeln kommer att bli utdragen och hållbar."

"We view this less as circular and more facilitating the coming AI buildout while at the same time creating additional competitive moats that will continue to enable NVDA to remain THE AI leader," the analysts wrote.

Nvidia's substantial cash generation has also allowed it to invest across the AI ecosystem while returning capital to shareholders.

The company said in May that it was increasing its quarterly dividend to 25 cents a share from a penny and announced a new $80 billion stock buyback plan.

Nvidia also pledged "to return roughly 50% of free cash flow to shareholders this year."

Next week's earnings report will provide a key test of Nvidia's ability to convert continued AI infrastructure investment into revenue growth while addressing investor concerns over financing, competition and the sustainability of spending across the sector.