Perché il prezzo del Bitcoin resta sotto i $80K dopo il rally esplosivo?

Bitcoin was trading around $77,000, holding last week’s explosive gains but below $80,000.

La criptovaluta è salita di oltre il 20% la scorsa settimana e ha raggiunto circa $79,500 venerdì, il suo livello più alto in circa tre mesi.

Il rally ha riflesso i riacquisti di titoli del Tesoro, un dollaro più debole, la domanda da parte degli ETF, l'ottimismo regolamentare e uno storico short squeeze.

Ma il mercato ora affronta una prova diversa. Gli acquisti forzati che hanno alimentato la prima fase stanno diminuendo, lasciando Bitcoin dipendente da una domanda istituzionale sostenuta e da tassi più accomodanti.

Lo short squeeze ha portato Bitcoin qui, ma quel carburante si sta esaurendo

More than $4.3 billion in bearish crypto positions were liquidated from Wednesday onwards as prices jumped. Short sellers were forced to buy back positions as prices rose, adding fuel to the move.

Quel meccanismo non può continuare indefinitamente.

MEXC Research chief analyst Shawn Young told The Block that the Treasury had “opened a pressure valve,” but crypto markets priced the intervention like a much broader change in monetary conditions.

Ha sostenuto che la mossa sui bond ha costretto gli short a uscire più rapidamente di quanto non abbia migliorato il caso macro sottostante di Bitcoin.

Zeus Research analyst Dominick John made a similar point. Once crowded short positions are cleared, he told The Block, the rally must stand on its own through fresh spot demand, liquidity and stronger fundamentals.

Getting from the mid-$60,000s to nearly $80,000 needed a trigger, but clearing $80,000 may require conviction.

Gli acquirenti di ETF sono tornati, ma devono restare

Il rally non è semplicemente uno short squeeze. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.9 billion in net inflows last week, their strongest weekly total of 2026, according to SoSoValue data.

Thursday brought $606.3 million, led by roughly $503 million into BlackRock’s IBIT. Wednesday added $517.2 million, showing that institutional buying strengthened as Bitcoin accelerated.

As per market data, Bitcoin-focused investment products attracted roughly $1.6 billion by August 20, helping flows recover after a weaker stretch.

The question is whether that demand can persist after such a rapid price rise.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju noted that demand in Bitcoin spot and perpetual markets turned positive together for the first time since the October 2025 peak.

But Ju cautioned that the scale remained modest. He said the improvement would need to hold for another month before it could reasonably signal a new bull cycle.

Il problema più grande potrebbe essere ancora la Fed

Bitcoin’s rally also reflected the Treasury’s decision to increase liquidity-support buybacks of longer-dated government bonds.

The announcement initially weakened the dollar and improved liquidity expectations, conditions that tend to help risk assets.

But long-term yields remain elevated, meaning Treasuries still compete with Bitcoin for capital.

CoinShares head of research James Butterfill said in an August 20 market update that Bitcoin was likely to remain range-bound, calling the $80,000 area an “important upper boundary.”

As per analysts, a decisive move would probably require clearer evidence from the Federal Reserve that policy risks have shifted away from further tightening.