Kospi-indeksen stiger på Samsung og SK Hynix – vær oppmerksom på nøkkelrisikoer

Sør-Koreas Kospi Index jumped by over 4% on Friday, capping a highly volatile week that saw it plunge to 7,060, its lowest level since May 20. It remains in a local bear market after falling by 20% from its highest point this year.

Samsung og SK Hynix stiger

Hoveddriveren bak den pågående oppgangen i Kospi Index er at de to største komponentene stiger i dag. Samsung-aksjen jumped by 6.29%, while SK Hynix and SK Square rose by 2.8% and 7.3%, respectively. 

Disse aksjene har hentet seg inn ettersom investorer vender tilbake til minneprodusenter. På torsdag fortsatte toppaktører som Micron, Sandisk og Western Digital sin gjenoppretting.

SK Hynix is soaring ahead of its ADR listing in the US today, which is said to be highly subscribed. It has raised $26.5 billion from American investors in the biggest foreign debut in the US. The fundraising was seven times subscribed, a sign of rising demand from investors.

Still, this offering may pose a risk to SK Hynix as we have seen with SpaceX. SpaceX IPO was equally oversubscribed, which helped push its stock to a record high. This week, however, the stock closed below its IPO price, mirroring what other companies go through after their IPO. 

In most cases, their stocks jump initially as the hype builds, and then retreats after a few days or weeks. This has happened to companies like Circle Internet, Gemini Space Station, and Figma. A pullback of SK Hynix’s ADR will likely lead to a similar retreat in its South Korean shares.

Other large South Korean stocks were also in the green today. Samsung Electro-Mechanics stock jumped by 6.36%, while Hyundai Motor, LG Energy, Samsung Biologics, and Samsung Life Insurance rose by over 5%.

Sørkoreanske aksjer står overfor store risikoer

Den vedvarende volatiliteten i Kospi skjer på et tidspunkt da sørkoreanske aksjer møter betydelige risikoer. En av disse risikoene er at oppgangen i stor grad er drevet av to selskaper innen samme bransje. Dermed vil indeksen stige dersom disse aksjene fortsetter å gjøre det bra, men det er en risiko for kraftig fall når musikken stanser.

Det er også en risiko knyttet til det som skjer i Midtøsten, hvor kampene mellom US og Iran har blusset opp igjen. Trump har erklært våpenhvilen over, noe som øker muligheten for eskalering. Et slikt scenario vil kunne føre til høyere oljepriser, med konsekvenser for den sørkoreanske økonomien.

Videre er det tegn på at utenlandske investorer har solgt seg ned i sørkoreanske aksjer. Data viser at disse investorene solgte aksjer for $12.6 billion i Sør-Korea i juni, et tegn på at det har beveget seg inn i en distribusjonsfase.

Det finnes også en belåningsrisiko ettersom sørkoreanere har tatt store lån for å investere i aksjemarkedet. I nedadgående trender lukkes ofte belånte posisjoner raskere, noe som kan akselerere utforsalget.

Teknisk analyse antyder at en nedgang i Kospi Index er mulig

As we have warned before, the Kospi Index has been in the markup phase of the Wyckoff Theory. The accumulation phase existed in several months before the rally started.

There is a risk that the ongoing volatility is because it has entered the distribution phase, which is then followed by the markdown stage. This markdown may accelerate as investors close their leveraged positions.

The index remains below the lower side of the ascending channel and has moved below the 50-day moving average. Therefore, there is a risk that it will resume its downtrend in the near term.