Robinhood-aksjen stiger 11% da BTC-rallyet løfter kryptoselskaper: Kan HOOD holde gevinstene?

Robinhood shares surged 11% on Friday as a kraftig rally i Bitcoin løftet kryptorelaterte aksjer i hele markedet.

Bitcoin was trading near $77,000, up substantially from around $62,800 at the beginning of the week, as investors poured into digital assets following a combination of macroeconomic and policy catalysts.

Bevegelsen har gitt et nytt løft til Robinhood HOOD, hvis handelsplattform lar kunder kjøpe og selge kryptovalutaer ved siden av aksjer og andre eiendeler.

Other crypto-linked stocks gikk også kraftig opp. Strategy rose more than 6%, while Coinbase gained about 9% and Circle Internet Group climbed roughly 9%.

Rallyet følger en turbulent periode for risikofylte aktiva, der markedene først reagerte positivt på et fall i Treasury-rentene før en kraftig short squeeze akselererte bevegelsen i kryptovalutaer.

According to CoinGlass, roughly 2,7 milliarder USD (ca. 26,4 milliarder kr) in crypto short positions were liquidated, forcing traders who had bet against digital assets to close their positions and adding further buying pressure.

Treasury intervention helped trigger the move

Den første katalysatoren kom fra obligasjonsmarkedet.

Treasury yields fell sharply on Wednesday after the US Treasury announced plans to double the size of its planned buybacks of longer-dated government debt.

Intervensjonen lettet midlertidig presset på risikofylte aktiva, inkludert kryptovalutaer, som ofte er følsomme for endringer i likviditet og lånekostnader.

Max Stuedlein, head of Partnerships at Sygnum APAC, said Bitcoin's rally reflects an alignment of macroeconomic and policy catalysts.

«The Treasury’s decision to double its buybacks of long-dated government debt is aimed at addressing long-term yield concerns, where borrowing costs have been rising on concerns over US debt levels and partial crowding out by debt issuances of hyperscalers,» he said.

Effekten har siden spredd seg utover Bitcoin ettersom investorer har gått inn i krypto-relaterte aksjer.

Institutional demand is strengthening

Bitcoin-rallyet støttes også av fornyet etterspørsel fra amerikanske investorer.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted 606 millioner USD (ca. 5,9 milliarder kr) in inflows on Thursday, up from 517 millioner USD (ca. 5,1 milliarder kr) a day earlier.

Total inflows this week have exceeded 1,6 milliarder USD (ca. 15,6 milliarder kr), marking the strongest weekly performance since October last year.

Den institusjonelle etterspørselen gir et sterkere fundament for rallyet enn bare short-covering, selv om det er usikkert hvor lenge innstrømningene kan vedvare.

For Robinhood kan økt kryptoaktivitet gi høyere transaksjonsinntekter.

Men selskapet har i økende grad forsøkt å vise at virksomheten blir mindre avhengig av kryptohandel.

Crypto accounted for just 12.88% of Robinhood's transaction revenue in the second quarter, down sharply from a peak of 53% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Robinhood eyes bigger role in tokenized equities

På toppen av den bredere politiske katalysatoren ligger Robinhoods satsing på tokeniserte aksjer.

CEO Vlad Tenev published a widely circulated piece on August 18 urging US policymakers to modernize securities laws to allow blockchain-based versions of stocks to trade domestically.

He warned that the US risks falling behind overseas markets, where tokenized equity trading has reached 9 milliarder USD (ca. 88 milliarder kr) in volume in 2026, an increase of more than 800% year to date.

The SEC is also reportedly working on an “innovation exemption” that could allow approved platforms to offer 24/7 trading in tokenized stocks.

Et slikt rammeverk kan gi Robinhood et betydelig regulatorisk handlingsrom for å utvide sine eksisterende tokeniseringsprodukter.

Analysts remain divided on Robinhood

Til tross for hoppet på fredag er Robinhood-aksjen fortsatt ned omtrent 8% i år, noe som understreker usikkerheten rundt aksjen.

Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder and head of research Tom Lee has reportedly included HOOD among the stocks he expects investors to avoid in 2026.

Hans forsiktige holdning er bemerkelsesverdig fordi Lee generelt har blitt sett på som en sterk tilhenger av kryptomarkedet.

Andre investorer er uenige.

Kevin Simpson, founder and CIO of Capital Wealth Planning, said he does not share Lee's bearish view.

Robinhood's second-quarter revenue increased 32% year over year to a record 1,3 milliarder USD (ca. 12,8 milliarder kr), while earnings per share rose 48% and net deposits reached a record 22 milliarder USD (ca. 215,2 milliarder kr).

Simpson acknowledged that the valuation is high but said he remains confident in CEO Vlad Tenev and Robinhood's ability to attract younger investors.

Joseph Terranova of Virtus Investment Partners described Lee's position on Robinhood as "counterintuitive."

Bryn Talkington, managing partner at Requisite Capital Management, also disagrees with Lee, arguing that Robinhood remains closely tied to cryptocurrency and could benefit significantly if the crypto market continues to recover.

Goldman Sachs recently added to the bullish outlook, raising its price target for Robinhood to $123 while maintaining a Buy rating.

The broader analyst consensus remains positive, with an average price target of around $124.73 and an Overweight rating.

Valuation remains the biggest concern

Det sterkeste argumentet mot å jakte Robinhood etter fredagens rally er verdsettelsen.

The stock trades at a forward non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio of about 38.3, compared with a sector median of 11.34.

Its trailing non-GAAP P/E is around 38.5, while the GAAP P/E stands at roughly 46.2.

Det betyr at investorer allerede betaler en betydelig premie for fremtidig vekst.

Bulls argue that the premium is justified because Robinhood is expanding beyond crypto and building a broader financial platform.

The declining contribution of cryptocurrency to transaction revenue supports that argument.

But a high valuation also leaves the stock vulnerable if growth slows or investor appetite for risk assets weakens.

Bitcoin's rally faces its own risks

There are also warning signs within the cryptocurrency market itself.

According to Crispus Nyaga, market analyst at Invezz, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index has climbed to about 85, its highest level since November 2024.

An RSI above 70 is generally considered overbought, suggesting that the recent rally may have moved too quickly.

That does not necessarily mean Bitcoin must fall immediately, but it increases the risk of profit-taking after such a sharp move.

The bond market presents another potential threat.

US long-term Treasury yields have resumed their climb after the initial impact of the Treasury's buyback announcement faded.

The 30-year yield rose to about 5.246% on Friday, approaching its year-to-date high.

Higher yields can put pressure on speculative assets by making relatively safer fixed-income investments more attractive and tightening financial conditions.

Can Robinhood sustain the rally?

Friday's surge shows how quickly Robinhood can benefit when Bitcoin and broader risk appetite turn higher.

The company's strong operating growth and declining reliance on crypto also give investors a reason to view it as more than a pure cryptocurrency proxy.

But the stock's elevated valuation means expectations are already high.

For now, Bitcoin's momentum, strong ETF inflows and renewed appetite for crypto-related equities are working in Robinhood's favor.

The question is whether those factors can overcome an increasingly overbought cryptocurrency market and renewed pressure from Treasury yields.