Palladium price: Here’s why volatility is set to define its short-term trade

Palladium price remains under pressure while the US-Iran war bolsters precious metals’ safe-haven appeal. Even before the chaos in the Middle East, palladium was the least performing of the four major precious metals. Notably, it is back to where it started in 2026 as a stronger US dollar and mixed demand outlook curbs its upside. 

Palladium market fundamentals point to heightened volatility

Precious metals have found support in the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, similar to these commodities, the US dollar is also considered a conventional safe-haven asset. As such, palladium price is under pressure from a stronger greenback. While it has pulled back from the three-month high hit earlier in the week, it has held steady above the previously strong resistance level of $98.50. 

Additionally, concerns that the US-Iran war will yield high inflation, coupled with strong US jobs data, have pushed a shift in the Fed policy outlook. Amid these drivers, there are increased bets that the US central bank may maintain higher interest rates for longer. Such an environment strengthens the US dollar while weighing on the non-yielding precious metals. 

Besides, China’s prolonged deflation streak and platinum’s investor demand is impacting palladium price. This comes as its tight supply and increased hybrid car production offer support. 

While palladium and platinum are both used in catalytic converters, the latter is also preferred for investment and jewelry. At the same time, China continues to grapple with deflationary pressures. In an effort to deal with the crisis, it has lowered its GDP growth target to 4.5%-5%; its lowest target in decades. 

Notably, the Asian country is the leading consumer and refiner of the industrial metal. As investors eye the supply/demand dynamics and precious metals’ safe-haven appeal, palladium price may be subject to volatility. 

Palladium price technical analysis

Palladium price edged lower on Thursday after pausing on its decline in the previous session. Earlier in the week, the metal momentarily rose above the resistance zone of $1,800 before dropping to an intraday low of $1,575 on Tuesday. At the time of writing, it was trading close to that low at $1,610.

A look at its daily trading chart indicates that palladium price may remain under pressure, at least in the short term. It continues to trade below the short-term 25-day EMA as well as the medium-term 50-day MA. Indeed, the two technical indicators appear ready to converge around $1,730. 

Depending on both the fundamentals, the convergence may result in the bearish death-cross pattern with the 25-day EMA crossing the 50-day MA to the downside. At the same time, the bullish trendline that has defined palladium price movements since mid-2025 has shaped the market’s resistance over the past three sessions. 

Based on these technical indicators, the range between $1,600 and $1,690 is worth watching in the short term. If able to attract enough buyers at the lower level, it may find support along the bullish trendline while having its gains curbed at $1,763. On the flip side, a further decline may activate the lower support level of $1,515.