Dow futures edge up as oil surge, PCE inflation data weigh on markets

US stock index futures edged higher in choppy trading on Friday as investors awaited key economic data on growth and inflation, while escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to push oil prices higher and cloud the outlook for global markets.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 135 points, or about 0.29%, while S&P 500 futures gained roughly 0.32%. Nasdaq 100 futures also advanced around 0.33%.

Despite the modest gains in futures trading, Wall Street’s main indexes remained on track to end the week lower.

The S&P 500 is set for a weekly decline of about 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is heading toward a steeper fall of roughly 1.7%. The Nasdaq Composite is down about 0.3% week to date.

Key inflation and growth data in focus

Investors were awaiting several closely watched economic reports due later in the day that could offer fresh insight into the strength of the US economy and the trajectory of inflation.

Data releases scheduled on Friday include January durable goods orders and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

The second estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product is also due today.

Reports on job openings for January and the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading of consumer sentiment for March are expected.

The Dow Jones consensus forecast expects headline PCE inflation to rise 0.3% month over month and 2.9% year over year.

Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to increase 0.4% from the prior month and 3.1% from a year earlier.

Oil surge and Middle East tensions add pressure

Market sentiment has also been weighed down by sharply rising oil prices amid a widening conflict in the Middle East.

Crude prices hovered near $100 a barrel as hostilities showed few signs of easing despite assurances from the Trump administration that the conflict could be resolved quickly.

Efforts to stabilize markets, including record emergency oil releases from the International Energy Agency and a US 30-day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea, have failed to significantly curb the surge in prices.

Economists warn that disruptions could extend beyond energy markets.

Private credit concerns and stock movers

Rising oil prices and growing inflation worries have also complicated expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Traders now anticipate only one 25-basis-point rate cut this year, according to LSEG data, compared with two expected before the conflict began on February 28.

The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week.

Meanwhile, stress in the private credit market has drawn increased scrutiny from investors.

Morgan Stanley halted redemptions at one of its private credit funds this week, following similar moves by BlackRock and Blue Owl in recent weeks.

JPMorgan also restricted lending to private credit players, while Blackstone reportedly faced a surge in redemption requests.

In corporate news, Adobe shares fell about 7% in premarket trading after longtime CEO Shantanu Narayen said he would step down once a successor is appointed.

Cybersecurity firm SentinelOne dropped 3.2% after forecasting quarterly profit below expectations.

Travel stocks also slipped amid rising fuel costs.

Airlines Alaska Air and American Airlines each fell about 0.2%, while cruise operators Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line declined roughly 0.8%.

Meanwhile, Meta Platforms slipped around 1% after a report said the company postponed the release of its artificial intelligence model “Avocado” until at least May.