Rolls-Royce share price sinks amid the US-Iran war: will it rebound?

Rolls-Royce share price has dropped into a correction after falling by 13% from its highest level this year. RR dropped to 1,227p on Tuesday as challenges in the civil aviation industry continued. This article explores what to expect and whether it will bounce back this year.

Rolls-Royce Holdings, one of the top industrial companies in Europe, is facing some major headwinds as the Iran war continues.

The company’s business is affected mostly because of its business model. In addition to manufacturing aircraft engines, the company makes most of its money through its TotalCare service.

TotalCare is a service where the company gets into long-term contracts to service aircrafts, charging its customers per mile. It shifts the burden from aircraft operators to Rolls-Royce.

Therefore, its business normally does well when the civil aviation industry is doing well without disruptions, such as what we have witnessed after the pandemic.

The company is now facing a major challenge as the civil aviation industry faces major challenges because of the crisis in the Middle East, where it has some major customers like Middle East Airlines and Vietjet. Most of its customers have vast operations in key Middle East airports, including in Dubai.

Therefore, there is a likelihood the company's flying hours will be lower than expected this quarter. This weakness will likely continue in the coming as long the war in Iran continues.

On the positive side, the company also has a large defense business, which will likely continue doing well in the coming years as countries boost their spending. Its defense industry includes engines that power some key planes. It also makes products in the naval and land areas.

War to disrupt strong growth

The most recent results showed that Rolls-Royce Holdings’ business has continued doing well in the past few months, with its revenue and profitability rising, leading to more shareholder returns.

Its revenue rose by 24% to £20 billion last year, while its operating profit jumped by 38% to over £3.4 billion. This revenue was driven by the civil aviation segment, which made £10.3 billion, with its operating profit jumping by 41% to £2.1 billion.

The defense business made £4.7 billion, while its operating profit jumped by 9% to £689 million. Most of its business was in transport, combat, followed by submarines.

Rolls-Royce made £4.9 billion in the power business, a trend that may continue in the coming years because of the ongoing demand for energy in the data center segment.

As a result, it now expects that its free cash flow will jump from £3.3 billion last year to between £5 billion and £5.5 billion in the mid term. It now expects to return between £7 billion and £9 billion between 2026 and 2028.

Rolls-Royce stock price technical analysis

RR stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Rolls-Royce share price has pulled back in the past few weeks, moving from a high of 1,420p in February to the current 1,230p.

It has moved below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Major S&R pivot point of 1,250p.

The most likely scenario is where the stock will drop in the near term, potentially to the Strong, Pivot, Reverse level of 1,125p. It will then bounce back later this year when the war shows signs of ending.