LUNR stock hits YTD high: could SpaceX cannibalize the stock

Investors are running into Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) following its historic launch of “Artemis II” – which successfully sent four astronauts on a lunar flyby on Apr. 1.

The Artemis news came only days after “NASA” selected LUNR for its commercial lunar payload services (CLPS) task order, further adding technical validation to the firm’s infrastructure.

However, with rumours of billionaire Elon Musk’s aerospace company SpaceX going public – it’s reasonable to question whether it’s as far as Intuitive Machines stock goes in 2026.

After all, a SpaceX debut could act as a capital vacuum, potentially draining liquidity from smaller aerospace players as institutional portfolios pivot toward the industry titan.

LUNR stock is well-positioned for SpaceX IPO

For those invested in LUNR shares, here’s the good news – the impact of a SpaceX IPO may be exactly the opposite on Intuitive Machines.

While it seems logical that a giant like SpaceX would “cannibalize” investment, the market is already treating its reported confidential filing as a “rising tide that lifts all boats.”

Instead of stealing capital from Intuitive Machines, the SpaceX news is proving a major “tailwind” that helped LUNR hit a new year-to-date high on Thursday morning.

Why? Simply because of sector re-rating. Note that SpaceX is reportedly targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation; Wall Street is being forced to change how they value smaller players.

Simply put, if the industry leader is worth trillions, market participants must start looking at smaller firms like Intuitive Machines and realize that they might just be significantly undervalued in 2026.

In a way, the SpaceX IPO legitimizes the entire space economy for institutional investors who may have previously stayed on the sidelines.

How to play Intuitive Machines shares at current levels?

Intuitive Machines shares are insulated from the potential cannibalizing effect of a SpaceX listing also because the firm’s business complements, not competes with the Elon Musk company.

These two businesses actually occupy different layers of the space stack.

SpaceX is the railroad – the infrastructure and the launch vehicle, while LUNR is the “last mile” –  specializing in lunar landing, lunar data networks, and surface operations; niche services that SpaceX often partners with rather than replaces.

What’s also worth mentioning is that a SpaceX IPO, while massive, is broadly expected to be super exclusive.

Reports suggest that only 30% of it will go to retail, with the bulk snapped up by sizable sovereign wealth funds and “mega-cap” institutions.

For an average investor or a mid-sized fund, therefore, LUNR remains the most accessible “pure-play” for direct exposure to the NASA missions and the lunar economy.

This is why Wall Street remains bullish on Intuitive Machines Inc for the remainder of 2026. The consensus rating on LUNR shares sits at “moderate buy” currently, with the mean price objective of about $26 indicating potential upside of another 8% from here.