Dow futures plunge 100 points today: 5 things to know before market opens

US stock futures were little changed on Friday as investors awaited a key reading on March inflation and monitored fragile diplomacy in the Middle East following recent tensions involving Iran.

S&P 500 futures slipped about 0.08% in early trading, while Nasdaq 100 futures were down a similar 0.08%.

Meanwhile, futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell roughly 106 points, signaling a modestly softer start for US equities.

The muted tone reflected a market caught between strong weekly gains and lingering uncertainty over both inflation and geopolitics.

Wall Street has rallied this week on hopes that conflict in the Middle East may not broaden further, but traders remain reluctant to push risk much higher before seeing whether price pressures picked up in March and whether diplomatic efforts hold.

5 things to know before Wall Street opens

1. Futures point to a subdued open after a strong week

US equity-index futures suggested a cautious start following solid gains across major benchmarks this week.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are both on track for their strongest weekly performances in months, supported by easing geopolitical fears earlier in the week.

Even so, Friday’s early moves showed investors were not prepared to extend the rally aggressively ahead of fresh macro data.

2. CPI data in focus

The consumer price index report is expected to show annual inflation of 3.3%, which would mark the biggest increase in nearly four years.

Investors will be watching the core measure closely for signs of whether underlying price pressures are easing on a sequential basis.

The report could reset expectations for the Federal Reserve after recent data suggested inflation remains sticky rather than decisively cooling.

3. Fed rate-cut expectations have shifted

Money markets have materially scaled back expectations for Fed easing this year.

Before the recent surge in Middle East tensions, traders had been pricing in around two rate cuts. More recently, expectations have turned more cautious, with markets at times even questioning whether cuts will materialize in 2026.

UBS Global Wealth Management said it still expects the central bank to cut rates later this year, arguing that consumer spending should remain resilient even as the labour market softens and core inflation cools sequentially.

4. Geopolitics remains a key variable

Geopolitical developments stayed in focus ahead of the open.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would seek direct talks with Lebanon, while Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, has signaled that recent reductions in hostilities may not be sufficient ahead of upcoming diplomatic talks expected over the weekend.

That has left investors with limited clarity on whether the recent easing in tensions will hold.

For markets, the issue is less the headlines themselves than whether they affect oil prices, inflation expectations and broader risk appetite.

5. Consumer sentiment also on deck

Alongside CPI, investors will also get the University of Michigan’s preliminary April reading of consumer sentiment.

In normal conditions, that might have been a secondary release.

But with inflation elevated and markets debating whether tighter financial conditions are beginning to weigh on households, sentiment data could shape the day’s trading if it points to a sharper slowdown in spending confidence.