Oil, gas prices to stay elevated above pre‑war levels into 2027

Commerzbank AG has revised its crude oil and European gas price forecasts downward following the US–Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, citing expectations of increased supply flows in the coming months. 

Norman Liebke, FX and commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said the pact marks a turning point for energy markets, though the pace of normalization remains uncertain.

Oil and gas prices have been under great pressure, following a deal between the US and Iran to stop the Middle East war and resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Oil price forecast cut amid Hormuz deal

“Energy markets reacted with relief to the agreement between the US and Iran, and oil and gas prices have fallen significantly,” Liebke noted in his latest report. 

The framework agreement, which comprises 14 points, calls for the lifting of the US blockade of Iranian ports and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.

According to the deal, mine clearance in the strait is to be completed within 30 days, though Liebke cited an alleged Pentagon assessment that raises doubts about whether this can be achieved so quickly.

The timeline for mine clearance will largely determine how fast oil shipments through Hormuz return to normal.

Bloomberg, citing Vortexa data, reported that 40 supertankers carrying 80 million barrels are waiting to pass through the strait. 

According to Kpler, nearly 153 million barrels of non‑Iranian oil could be transported between June and August if there are no further disruptions, with an additional 72 million barrels of Iranian crude possible if the US lifts its naval blockade in time.

Against this backdrop, Commerzbank has lowered its Brent crude forecast to USD 80 per barrel by year‑end, down from $85 previously. 

“As a result of the framework agreement, oil supply is likely to increase again, although slowly at first,” Liebke said. He added that while prices will ease, they are expected to remain higher than pre‑war levels for most of the coming year.

Supply and demand dynamics

The International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report shows global oil supply this year will average 3.8 million barrels per day, less than last year, with inventories declining at a similar rate since the war began. 

Liebke explained that this depletion means demand is likely to rise as inventories are replenished. “We continue to expect that the price will remain higher than it was before the war for most of the coming year,” he said.

The reopening of Hormuz is expected to gradually ease supply bottlenecks, but analysts caution that insurers and shipowners remain wary.

The pace of recovery will depend not only on mine clearance but also on confidence that transit fees and security risks are addressed.

Gas price forecast revised lower

Commerzbank also cut its forecast for European gas prices. “We now expect the European gas price to reach 45 EUR per MWh by the end of the year (previously: 50 EUR),” Liebke wrote. 

In the short term, prices may decline as shipments through Hormuz resume. However, he warned of upside risks.

Low storage levels in Europe also point to upward pressure.

Gas prices are expected to remain higher next year than before the war, despite Qatar’s announcement that it will ramp up production to 80% of pre‑war capacity within two months.

Liebke cautioned that “it would still take several years for Qatari LNG production to return to pre‑war levels, given the war damage.”

Outlook for energy markets

The agreement between Washington and Tehran has provided a measure of relief to energy markets, but the path forward remains complex. 

The reopening of Hormuz could unlock significant volumes of crude and LNG, yet logistical and political challenges persist.

For oil, the balance between rising supply and depleted inventories will shape price trajectories. For gas, Asian demand and European storage constraints will be decisive.

Liebke concluded that while the pact is a positive step, markets should brace for uneven progress. 

“The answer to this question will, to a considerable extent, determine how quickly oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal in the coming weeks. Which in turn will have a major impact on energy prices,” he said.