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Why Cathie Wood is doubling down on this $18 stock

Why Cathie Wood is doubling down on this $18 stock
Devesh Kumar
03 July 2026, 18:49 PM

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SOFI buy

Buy SoFi (SOFI). ARKK’s fresh $5.5M top-up after selling earlier in June signals renewed conviction. The catalyst stack is real: Composer by SoFi (AI investing platform) plus small-business loans with fast, fee-free execution. Q1 showed strong momentum (revenue +41% YoY, profit doubled, members +35%, record originations). Thesis: the market is underpricing a shift from pure lending to AI-enabled, higher-retention financial products while loan growth continues.

Key Risk: SoFi’s technology-platform revenue keeps shrinking (client losses don’t stop), so the AI/product story fails to translate into durable earnings power.

SOFI sell/short

Sell/short SoFi (SOFI) if you want the bearish setup. The stock is still down ~32% YTD and Wall Street is split (Hold consensus; targets cluster near current price). The bull case depends on execution and funding confidence, but management didn’t lift full-year guidance and the tech platform segment already showed weakness after losing a major client. Thesis: the “AI + faster loans” narrative won’t overcome valuation and execution risk fast enough to re-rate the stock.

Key Risk: Loan growth or funding costs deteriorate less than expected and earnings re-accelerate, forcing the stock to re-rate upward despite guidance caution.

  • ARKK bought 299,753 SoFi shares across three sessions.
  • SoFi launched AI investing tool Composer by SoFi in June.
  • Analysts remain cautious despite ARK’s renewed buying interest.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF has bought back into SoFi Technologies NASDAQ:SOFI just as the beaten-down fintech stock is trying to recover from a difficult first half of the year.

ARKK bought 299,753 SoFi shares across June 29, June 30 and July 1, worth about USD 5.5 million (approx. $8 million) based on SoFi’s July 1 close of $18.44, according to ARK trade data.

The move stood out because Wood had sold 114,664 shares earlier in June, making the fresh buying look like a renewed vote of confidence rather than routine portfolio trimming.

Cathie Wood’s $5.5 million bet on SoFi stock

The latest purchase does not make SoFi a top holding in ARKK, as the fund remains led by names such as Tesla, Tempus AI, AMD, CRISPR Therapeutics and Robinhood, while SoFi is more of a top-up position than a flagship bet.

Robinhood data showed ARKK’s top 10 holdings made up nearly half of the fund as of July 1, with Tesla alone accounting for more than 10% of assets.

Still, Wood’s timing is notable as SoFi stock was recently trading around $18.24, after dipping toward the mid-$15 area during its spring sell-off.

The stock is still down roughly 32% year-to-date, but it has begun to recover from recent lows as investors revisit the fintech’s growth story.

SoFi stock: What’s fuelling the rally

Part of the renewed interest comes from product momentum.

On June 23, SoFi launched Composer by SoFi, an AI-powered investing platform that lets users build, test and automate investment strategies using plain English.

The move is seen as a deeper push into AI-driven trading tools after SoFi’s acquisition of Composer Securities.

That puts SoFi in the middle of a broader fintech AI race.

SoFi’s push follows similar efforts from rivals such as Robinhood and Coinbase, as financial apps try to make investing tools feel more personalised and easier to use.

The company has also moved beyond consumer lending.

SoFi introduced small-business loans on June 30, offering fixed loans of up to $250,000 with quick decisions, fast funding and no application or origination fees.

As per industry reports, funding can arrive as soon as 24 hours after approval.

There is also an insider-confidence angle as CEO Anthony Noto has repeatedly bought SoFi shares in 2026, including 56,000 shares in March for about USD 1 million (approx. $1.5 million) and another 28,900 shares later that month.

Barron’s said he had acquired about USD 1.5 million (approx. $2.2 million) of SoFi stock in 2026 by March, while later filings showed further open-market purchases.

Fundamentally, SoFi’s latest quarter was strong, though not flawless.

The Q1 adjusted revenue rose 41% year-over-year to USD 1.1 billion (approx. $1.6 billion), while profit doubled to 12 cents per share. Members rose 35% to 14.7 million and loan originations hit a record USD 12.2 billion (approx. $17.8 billion).

The weaker spot was the technology platform business, where revenue fell after the loss of a large client.

What analysts are saying

Wall Street is not as enthusiastic as Wood.

TipRanks shows SoFi with a Hold consensus, based on six Buy ratings, 10 Holds and three Sells. Its average price target stands at $20.69, with forecasts ranging from $16 to $30.

The bull case is that worries over SoFi funding more loans on its own balance sheet are already reflected in the stock.

William Blair analyst Andrew Jeffrey wrote after the first-quarter report that investors would dislike management’s decision not to lift full-year guidance, but he still saw limited downside.

The cautious camp is focused on valuation and execution. Truist cut its target to $17 from $20 in May, citing weaker loan-platform sales and softer technology-platform trends.

KBW has also held an Underperform view on SoFi, reflecting concern that the stock still prices in a lot of future growth.