Cardano price faces 20% crash risk as whale accumulation turns flat

Cardano ADA continued to trade lower on Tuesday, extending its losing streak to three consecutive sessions as both whale activity and retail participation showed signs of cooling.

On-chain data suggests large investors have paused accumulation, while derivatives metrics indicate retail traders are reducing leveraged positions following last week's rally.

The combination has weakened short-term sentiment and left ADA vulnerable to further downside if buying interest fails to return.

Whale accumulation remains flat

Large Cardano holders have shown little appetite to increase their exposure in recent days. 

According to Santiment data, wallets holding more than 1 billion ADA continue to hold approximately 3.22 billion ADA, with balances remaining largely unchanged since Friday.

Addresses holding 100 million to 1 billion ADA have also maintained holdings of around 2.53 billion ADA since last week.

The absence of meaningful accumulation from these major investors suggests institutional confidence has stabilized rather than strengthened, reducing a potential source of upward price momentum.

Retail sentiment has also weakened significantly, according to derivatives data from CoinGlass.

ADA futures Open Interest (OI) dropped approximately 3% over the past 24 hours to USD 433.9 million (approx. $632.2 million), indicating traders are closing leveraged positions.

At the same time, Cardano's funding rate declined sharply from 0.0093% to 0.0029%, signaling reduced demand for leveraged long positions.

Liquidation data further highlights the shift in sentiment. In the last 24 hours, total liquidations topped 1.47 million, with longs accounting for USD 1.1 million (approx. $1.6 million). 

The higher volume of long liquidations suggests bullish traders absorbed most of the recent losses as buying pressure weakened.

Cardano technical forecast: Bears eye deeper pullback

The ADA/USD 4-hour chart shows that Cardano's outlook has turned mildly bearish after the token slipped below an important moving average.

At the time of writing, ADA is trading at $0.1786, below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.1861 and well beneath its 200-day EMA around $0.2940.

This positioning indicates that while the short-term trend has weakened, the longer-term recovery remains constrained.

If sellers maintain control and ADA records another decisive daily close below the 50-day EMA, the decline could extend toward the June 26 low at $0.1385.

A move to that level would represent a decline of more than 20% from current prices.

Technical momentum indicators suggest bullish strength is fading rather than accelerating.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, but its positive histogram continues to shrink, indicating weakening upward momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to around 48 after hitting the overbought territory last week.

The RSI's pullback suggests buying pressure is cooling, reinforcing the cautious near-term outlook.

For buyers to regain control, ADA would first need to reclaim its 50-day EMA near $0.1861 with a decisive daily close above that level.

Beyond that, the 200-day EMA around $0.2940 remains the next major resistance zone and represents a significant hurdle before a broader bullish trend could resume.

Until then, Cardano's price action is likely to remain vulnerable to additional downside as both whale participation and retail demand continue to soften.