Strategy (MSTR) stock gains as Standard Chartered backs $100K Bitcoin forecast

Strategy Inc. MSTR (formerly known as Microstrategy) gained on Friday after Standard Chartered said recent weakness in bitcoin reflects investor uncertainty over the company's evolving strategy rather than any deterioration in its balance sheet.

In a note, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, maintained the bank's end-2026 bitcoin price target of $100,000.

He argued that Strategy's recent actions have created short-term uncertainty but do not alter bitcoin's medium-term outlook.

The comments come after Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for about $216 million last week, its largest disposal to date, while adopting a Digital Credit Capital Framework that includes a bitcoin monetization program, a USD reserve, share buybacks and preferred stock support.

Strategy shifts away from its "never sell" approach

Kendrick said Strategy appears to be moving beyond its long-held commitment to never selling bitcoin, with investors still trying to understand the implications of that strategic shift.

"Strategy's actions are muddying bitcoin's near-term prospects," Kendrick wrote.

He added that "The company appears to be moving away from its 'never sell bitcoin' mantra toward a more complex approach, and clear communication of that pivot will determine how quickly the pressure on bitcoin lifts."

Strategy currently owns 843,775 bitcoin, representing more than 4% of the total supply that will ever exist.

According to Standard Chartered, the company's business model has evolved as its market net asset value multiple has declined toward 1.0, limiting its ability to issue shares and buy additional bitcoin under its previous strategy.

Instead, Kendrick said Strategy is increasingly positioning bitcoin as collateral supporting STRC, its perpetual preferred stock that pays a 12% annual dividend.

STRC pricing remains key to bitcoin outlook

Standard Chartered said investor concern intensified after STRC fell well below its $100 par value, reaching an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26 following Strategy's announcement that it had sold 32 bitcoin the previous week.

The preferred security currently trades around $90, while Strategy holds a USD reserve of $2.55 billion, equivalent to roughly 17.4 months of dividend coverage.

The company has also introduced a bitcoin monetization program that allows it to sell bitcoin from time to time and raise up to $1.25 billion to support reserves, dividend payments, interest obligations, and share repurchases.

Kendrick argued that if investors gain confidence in the framework, Strategy may not need to sell bitcoin at all.

He compared the mechanism to a central bank promising to do "whatever it takes" and, through credibility, avoiding intervention altogether.

He added that STRC remains heavily overcollateralized and should eventually trade back toward its $100 par value.

Analysts divided after bitcoin sale

Strategy's recent sale of 3,588 bitcoin raised approximately $216 million and came alongside an $8.32 billion digital asset loss reported for the second quarter of 2026.

JPMorgan analysts said formalizing bitcoin sales introduces "avoidable two-way risk" by making Strategy both a buyer and seller of bitcoin.

Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl disagreed, arguing the sales strengthen Strategy's balance sheet and help bitcoin establish a more durable price floor.

Wall Street remains broadly constructive on the stock despite differing views.

Citi maintained a Buy rating and a $260 price target, while Mizuho lowered its target to $213 but reiterated an Outperform rating.

Kendrick said the recent volatility should not change investors' longer-term outlook.

He described the recent episode as "noise rather than a signal about bitcoin's medium-term direction," adding that at current levels bitcoin is "a screaming buy".