Where options pricing suggests Tesla stock is headed after Q2 earnings

Tesla TSLA shares are inching higher ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings scheduled to be released after market close on Wednesday, July 22^nd.

Consensus is for the EV specialist to post a nearly 15% year-on-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) to $0.31 on revenue of at least $25.7 billion – which would represent a 16% jump from last year.

While Tesla stock remains down significantly versus the start of 2026, options pricing suggests it’s poised to reclaim some of that loss after the Q2 print this week.

Options data suggests further upside in Tesla stock

Heading into Tesla’s quarterly earnings, the put-to-call ratio on options contracts expiring July 24^th sits at 0.54, indicating a strong bullish skew.

According to Barchart, the upper price on those contracts sits at just over $401 currently, signaling potential for a 5.36% rally in TSLA shares through the end of this week.

Much of the derivatives market’s confidence may be traced back to Tesla’s strong delivery report.

Earlier this month, billionaire Elon Musk’s company said it delivered 480,126 vehicles in its fiscal Q2, up 25% versus the same quarter of 2025.

Analyst sees massive upside in TSLA shares

Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald seem to agree with options traders on Tesla shares.

In a note to clients this week, they maintained an Overweight rating on the EV firm and a strongly bullish $510 price target.

Their positive view is rooted in its high-margin Cybercab business.

“We believe TSLA will have the ability to scale rapidly following commercialization (despite the delayed expansion) and capture meaningful market share,” the firm’s analysts wrote.

Amidst accelerating milestones for the Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robots, Cantor Fitzgerald remains constructive on Tesla's ability to unlock recurring software economics as autonomy commercializes.

From a technical perspective, the EV stock is currently trading a little under its 20-day MA – with a decisive break above the $395 level expected to boost upward momentum in the near-term.

What investors must focus on as Tesla reports earnings

While top-line delivery growth provides a solid backdrop, Street’s post-earnings focus will quickly shift to automotive gross margins and capital spending efficiency.

Investors are eager to see if manufacturing scale, operational discipline, and localized supply chain efficiencies can offset pricing pressures and raw material cost headwinds, protecting operational profitability.

Beyond core auto metrics, management’s commentary on the earnings call regarding real-world AI investments – specifically concrete timelines for Full Self-Driving (FSD) expansion and scaling capital expenditure for data center compute – will likely act as a catalyst.

A decisive beat on core margins paired with confident guidance on physical AI infrastructure could give TSLA stock the momentum needed to clear technical resistance levels.

Heading into the earnings release, Wall Street remains bullish on Tesla Inc, with a “Moderate Buy” rating coupled with a $418 mean price target.