PayPal stock in focus as Wall Street eyes response to Stripe bid

PayPal stock is gearing up for one of its most important earnings releases yet, as investors await the company's response to the recent buyout offer from Stripe and Advent International. PYPL was trading at $56, well above its year-to-date low of $40.

PayPal to respond to Stripe and Advent offer

In one of the biggest M&A stories of the year, Stripe and Advent International announced that they would team up to buy PayPal in a $53 billion deal. PayPal’s current valuation of $49 billion suggests that the company may reject the offer.

PayPal has not formally responded to the recent offer, but some media reports suggest that the board had rejected it, citing its valuation. Therefore, the management will likely provide a detailed feedback about the offer.

The company has several options. It can accept the offer outright, a move that would benefit Stripe and Advent. Alternatively, it may ask the two companies to boost their offer, which would push the stock higher.

Alternatively, a white knight investor may come and place a higher bid for the company. A good example of this is when Netflix gatecrashed Paramount’s buyout of Warner Bros. Discovery. After that, Warner Bros. Discovery stock surged, and Paramount was forced to pay much more than it originally wanted.

PayPal may also decide to reject the offer, with the management signalling that it will engineer a turnaround for the company. If this happens, the two acquirers may then decide to send the offer direct to the shareholders.

If a deal goes through, the two companies will be buying a company that has become a bargain. Data shows that it has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5, much lower than the five-year average of 18.70. This multiple is much smaller than the S&P 500 Index’s average of 21.

PayPal to publish its Q2 earnings

Analysts expect the upcoming earnings report to show that PayPal’s business continued slowing in the second quarter as competition in the industry rose. 

The average estimate among analysts is that its revenue rose by just 2.2% YoY to $8.47 billion. For the third quarter, analysts predict that its revenue will rise by just 2.54% to $8.48 billion. Analysts expect that its annual revenue will jump by 3.48% to $33.84 billion.

At the same time, its earnings per share is expected to drop from $1.4 to $1.28 as its costs continue rising. 

PayPal’s growth has stalled substantially in the past few years as competition in the payments industry has jumped. It is now competing with companies like Stripe, Google, Amazon, and Apple.

Some of its growth initiatives have not worked out well. For example, years after its launch, PayPal USD (PYUSD) is yet to gain market share in the stablecoin industry. It has just $2.4 billion in assets under management, a tiny amount in an industry with over $300 billion in assets.

The company also launched Fastlane, which is aimed at simplifying the checkout process. This launch has not led to a substantial growth of its payment volume in the past few years. Most recently, it slashed 20% of its workforce in the first quarter.