Advantest, SoftBank lift Nikkei 225: is Nvidia about to decide next move?

Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversed an early decline on Wednesday as falling oil prices and lower US Treasury yields eased pressure on growth stocks, while investors positioned cautiously before Nvidia’s closely watched earnings.

The benchmark was up about 0.6% at 66,271 around 1 pm in Tokyo, after falling earlier in the session.

Advantest and SoftBank Group were the biggest positive contributors, while Tokyo Electron and Kioxia lagged.

Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea’s KOSPI remained volatile after an early decline, while MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan edged higher.

Nikkei reverses early losses as AI names recover

Advantest gained about 2.7% and SoftBank Group rose roughly 2.6%, together contributing more than 300 points to the Nikkei by early afternoon.

Recruit Holdings and Sony Group also advanced more than 1%, helping broaden the recovery beyond semiconductors.

The move was notable because Tokyo Electron, another heavyweight chip-equipment name, was only marginally higher after falling more than 2% earlier, while Kioxia remained down about 0.8%.

That split suggests investors are not making a blanket bet on Japanese technology before Nvidia reports.

Terra Drone stood out beyond the Nikkei, jumping more than 20% after Japan’s Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency selected the company to supply an interceptor drone for the Self-Defense Forces.

Lower oil and yields give Tokyo some breathing room

Japan also benefited from a sharp pullback in crude. Brent fell more than 2% towards $86 a barrel after Iran resumed talks with Oman over managing the Strait of Hormuz.

The waterway carried about a fifth of globally traded oil before the conflict.

Lower oil is particularly helpful for Japan, a major energy importer. It reduces pressure on import costs, corporate margins and inflation expectations, while also helping calm global bond markets.

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell towards 4.63% after declining about 6.5 basis points on Tuesday. The easing in yields provided another tailwind for richly valued technology shares.

Elsewhere, Nasdaq futures fell about 0.5%, European futures were broadly flat and MSCI’s Asia-Pacific benchmark outside Japan was little changed to slightly higher.

Nvidia remains the test for Japan’s chip trade

The bigger catalyst comes after the US close, when Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter results.

Consensus estimates point to revenue of about $92.2 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.09 a share, with third-quarter sales expected near $104.2 billion.

Saxo chief investment strategist Charu Chanana wrote on Saxo that simply beating forecasts may no longer satisfy investors.

The more important questions are how large any upside surprise is, what management signals about future revenue and whether margins can withstand rising component costs.

J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur told MarketWatch that Nvidia’s commentary on competitiveness will also be critical as custom chips and emerging rivals challenge parts of its AI franchise.

That matters directly for the Nikkei. Advantest, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank and other AI-linked names have become major index drivers, making Tokyo increasingly sensitive to Nvidia and the wider AI capital-spending cycle.

Advantest alone carried a 12.6% Nikkei weight at Tuesday’s close.