Cardano rally losing steam: is ADA heading back towards $0.19 support?

Cardano trades higher on Thursday, extending its weekly rally to approximately 13% as momentum continues following last week’s 30% rally.

However, declining Open Interest, negative funding rates, and elevated long liquidations indicate weakening retail demand for ADA futures. 

The technical outlook has also deteriorated, with sellers targeting the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $0.1898.

Cardano futures demand weakens

Cardano’s derivatives market is showing a bearish shift in retail positioning as ADA struggles to sustain its recovery above $0.20.

CoinGlass data shows that ADA futures Open Interest declined by nearly 2% over the past 24 hours to $494.17 million. The contraction suggests traders are closing positions or being forced out of leveraged trades.

Long liquidations reached $983,670 during the same period, compared with just $103,370 in short liquidations.

The imbalance indicates that bullish positions suffered the most from Cardano’s latest decline.

Cardano’s Open Interest-weighted funding rate has fallen to -0.0019%. A negative funding rate means short-position holders are paying long traders to keep their positions open.

This reflects growing bearish sentiment as derivatives traders position for further downside.

The combination of declining Open Interest, negative funding and heavy long liquidations suggests that retail traders are becoming less confident in ADA’s immediate recovery prospects.

Cardano rally stalls below the 200-day EMA

Cardano’s 30% rally last week encountered resistance at the 200-day EMA, currently around $0.2483.

An overhead descending trendline near $0.2333 also limited the advance on Saturday, preventing buyers from extending the rally.

Cardano’s performance comes as the broader crypto market retreats following the recent rally. Bitcoin has dropped towards the $78,000 level after hitting the $80,000 psychological mark earlier this week.

Other leading altcoins including Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are also experiencing a retracement following the market’s recent rally. 

ADA has since reversed lower and now displays a mildly bearish short-term bias. The token is moving toward the 50-day EMA at $0.1898, which represents the immediate support level.

Cardano’s daily momentum indicators reinforce the weakening technical picture. The Relative Strength Index has fallen to 52 after retreating from overbought territory. 

Although the indicator remains above its neutral level of 50, its downward slope shows that bullish momentum is fading.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator and its signal line remain above zero, but both have started to flatten. Contracting histogram bars further suggest that buyers are gradually losing control.

The 50-day EMA at $0.1898 is the first major support for Cardano. A decisive daily close below this level could accelerate the correction toward an ascending trendline near $0.1705.

This trendline may determine whether ADA maintains its broader recovery structure or enters a deeper decline, making it an important level for traders tracking price action through crypto apps.

On the upside, Cardano must reclaim the 200-day EMA at $0.2483 to restore its bullish outlook.

A confirmed breakout above that resistance could extend the recovery toward the February 3 high at $0.3050.