Why is Autodesk stock falling 4% despite Q2 earnings beat

Autodesk ADSK stock fell about 4% on Friday after the software company issued third-quarter and full-year earnings guidance that fell short of Wall Street expectations, despite beating estimates for its fiscal second quarter.

Analysts remained broadly positive on the company’s underlying business momentum and maintained Buy ratings with price targets ranging from $285 to $325.

Autodesk beats Q2 revenue and earnings estimates

Autodesk reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $3.30 per share, compared with Wall Street expectations of $3.12.

Revenue rose 16% year over year to $2.05 billion, exceeding the $2.01 billion consensus estimate.

Billings increased 10% from a year earlier to $1.85 billion, while current remaining performance obligations rose 12% to $5.2 billion.

CEO Andrew Anagnost highlighted the company’s position in artificial intelligence, saying, “The future of AI for the built world will belong to the trusted platform that combines the richest context with the right models to deliver the best outcomes for customers.”

BTIG analyst Nick Altmann reiterated a Buy rating with a $300 price target, pointing to stronger-than-expected revenue growth, resilient renewals and improving expansion activity.

Altmann said Autodesk’s revenue increased 14% on a constant-currency basis, ahead of BTIG’s 12% estimate.

Revenue growth adjusted for foreign exchange and the company’s new transaction model was 12%, also above expectations.

Guidance weighs on Autodesk stock

Despite the quarterly beat, Autodesk’s outlook pressured the shares.

For the third quarter, the company expects earnings of $3.04 to $3.09 per share and revenue of $2.125 billion to $2.140 billion.

Analysts had expected earnings of $3.14 per share, although their revenue forecast of $2.08 billion was below Autodesk’s guidance range.

For the full year, Autodesk forecast earnings of $12.52 to $12.60 per share and revenue of $8.295 billion to $8.345 billion. Wall Street expects earnings of $12.58 per share and revenue of $8.21 billion.

Autodesk also raised its organic fiscal 2027 revenue-growth outlook by about one percentage point after adjusting for foreign exchange.

Stifel maintained its Buy rating and $285 price target, saying Autodesk exceeded its second-quarter top- and bottom-line expectations.

DA Davidson also reiterated a Buy rating and $325 target, citing the improved organic growth outlook.

Margins remain a key investor concern

Profitability remains an area of focus as Autodesk integrates MaintainX.

The company reported a 41% operating margin, above BTIG’s 39% estimate and roughly 200 basis points higher than a year earlier. GAAP operating margin reached 29%, compared with BTIG’s 26% estimate.

However, Altmann identified the margin outlook as the main concern.

Autodesk maintained its fiscal 2027 operating-margin framework at around 39% while lowering its GAAP margin outlook by about one percentage point as MaintainX adds costs.

MaintainX is expected to contribute about $60 million in fiscal 2027 revenue and roughly $70 million in billings.

Stifel noted that the midpoint of Autodesk’s free cash flow guidance declined 1% as the company absorbs MaintainX expenses.

The firm also said Autodesk continues to see traction with its ACC and Fusion products, while broader macroeconomic and demand conditions remain unchanged.