XRP has 11 days of ETF inflows, but is that enough to break the $1.40 ceiling?

XRP has risen 1.5% over the past 24 hours to around $1.37, rebounding from a low near $1.31 as a Bank for International Settlements test of the XRP Ledger and continued exchange-traded fund inflows have supported the recovery.

The Bank for International Settlements detailed a proof of concept using the XRP Ledger in a working paper published on Sept. 2, giving XRP a fresh catalyst as the price recovered towards $1.38.

BIS researchers used XRPL to test whether official statistical datasets could be verified through cryptography. 

The system created fingerprints of datasets and recorded a summary value on the ledger, allowing users to check the identity of the publisher and determine whether information had been changed after publication.

Only the cryptographic fingerprints were placed on-chain, leaving the underlying statistical information outside the ledger. 

Publishing took between three and five seconds during testing, while verification required one to two seconds. Batching also allowed one ledger entry to cover thousands of datasets.

The experiment was conducted on XRPL Devnet as a proof of concept. BIS has not adopted the XRP Ledger for a production system, making the distinction important as XRP traders respond to the institutional use case described in the paper.

Demand through US spot XRP ETFs has continued alongside the latest price move. 

The products recorded their 11th consecutive trading session of net inflows on Sept. 1, attracting another $14.38 million, as per data from SoSoValue.

Inflows during the streak have reached roughly $170 million, taking cumulative inflows since the products launched in November to approximately $1.68 billion.

Investors continued adding exposure even as XRP pulled back from its late-August highs.

XRP has also returned to an important on-chain demand area. More than 4.8 billion XRP had previously been acquired between $1.31 and $1.38, and the token recovered after briefly reaching the lower end of the range over the past 24 hours, according to Benzinga.

A move through $1.38 would put XRP above the upper boundary of the zone, with previous transaction activity placing another resistance area near $1.60.

Selling pressure from Ripple's September escrow unlock was also limited after most of the released XRP was locked away again. 

While Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP on Sept. 1, it returned 700 million XRP to new escrow contracts, leaving 300 million outside the new locks. 

The relocking reduced the amount of XRP from the scheduled release that could potentially enter liquid supply, easing concerns that the full 1 billion tokens could reach the market.

XRP price analysis

XRP's daily chart places the price near $1.37 after its sharp August move from below $1.00 reached the $1.50 area. 

The token has since pulled back from that peak but continues to trade well above the lower Donchian Channel boundary at $0.9928.

XRP/USDT 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

The 21-day Donchian Channel currently has its upper boundary at $1.5201, making $1.52 the first major price level XRP would need to clear to extend its August breakout. 

XRP is roughly 11% below that level at its current price. A daily close above $1.52 would leave the previous transaction-based resistance around $1.60 as the next probable target.

The daily Money Flow Index stands at 44.62 after dropping from above 80 during the August price spike. 

The reading has moved below the neutral 50 level as trading volume declined from the surge that accompanied XRP's jump towards $1.50. 

A recovery above 50 alongside a move through $1.38 would show that buying pressure is returning, while a continued fall towards 30 would increase the chance of another test of $1.31.

On the 4-hour chart, XRP has been consolidating between roughly $1.34 and $1.40 after retreating from the late-August peak. See below.

XRP/USDT 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView.

Recent candles have stopped making the steep lower lows seen immediately after the spike, with price recovering from around $1.34 to $1.37 on Sept. 3.

The Aroon indicator has its Aroon Up reading at 80% and Aroon Down at 16%. 

The large gap favours the recent 4-hour highs over the recent lows, although Aroon Up has started falling from 100%. 

XRP would need to push back through $1.40 and hold above it to keep the indicator weighted towards recent highs.

The 4-hour Chande Momentum Oscillator has recovered to 18.45 after recently falling below zero and reaching roughly minus 70. 

Moving back into positive territory means recent gains are now outweighing recent losses over the indicator's lookback period. 

A continued rise towards 50 alongside a break above $1.40 would support a move towards the late-August resistance between $1.50 and $1.52.

Failure to clear $1.38-$1.40 would keep XRP inside its current consolidation range. 

A break below roughly $1.34 would expose the recent $1.31 low, while losing the $1.31 demand area would put the daily chart's next visible support around $1.25-$1.26 in focus.