Solana tests $100 as whale traders bet on a rebound

Solana is down 2% on Tuesday and is now trading around $102. However, several large derivatives traders are betting that the cryptocurrency will resume its recent uptrend.

Five whale addresses on Hyperliquid opened a combined $9.11 million in SOL long positions between September 7 and September 8, according to CoinGlass data.

The positions come ahead of a Solana network upgrade scheduled for September 9. However, broader futures metrics remain bearish, suggesting that the whales are taking a contrarian position against prevailing market sentiment.

Five whales build $9.11 million SOL long positions

CoinGlass data shows that the five Hyperliquid whales expect Solana to continue the recovery that began on August 17.

Their combined $9.11 million exposure indicates confidence that the upcoming network improvement could support renewed buying demand. 

Long positions generate profits when the underlying asset rises, but they also face liquidation risks if SOL extends its decline.

The concentration of bullish positions among a small number of large traders does not guarantee a rally. 

Nevertheless, sizable whale activity can influence sentiment, particularly when it occurs before a major protocol change.

Solana’s September 9 upgrade will increase the maximum transaction size from 1,232 bytes to 4,096 bytes.

The additional capacity will allow developers to include more instructions within a single operation. Some processes that previously required several separate transactions could therefore be bundled together.

Although Solana typically offers faster and less expensive transactions, its rigid 1,232-byte ceiling has limited data-intensive operations.

By more than tripling its maximum size, Solana aims to support more complex applications and reduce the need to divide related instructions across multiple transactions.

Despite the whale long positions, Solana’s broader derivatives market continues to show cautious sentiment.

SOL’s funding rate remains positive at 0.0025%, indicating that long-position holders are paying shorts to keep their trades open. This typically reflects stronger demand for bullish positions.

However, the long-to-short ratio stood at 0.94, meaning short accounts outnumbered long accounts. The reading reinforces the view that the five Hyperliquid whales are positioned against the wider futures market.

Demand for SOL derivatives has also weakened. Trading volume fell 10% to $6.58 billion, while open interest declined 1.21% to $6.47 billion.

Lower volume indicates reduced trading activity, while declining open interest shows that some leveraged positions are being closed. 

Together, the metrics suggest that futures traders are reducing exposure as SOL approaches its upgrade.

Finally, institutional demand presents a more constructive picture. Solana exchange-traded funds have recorded inflows for 10 consecutive weeks. 

The streak indicates that demand through regulated investment products remains resilient despite weaker futures activity.

This creates a divided market outlook. Whale positioning and ETF inflows favor an eventual recovery, while negative funding, falling open interest and a sub-one long-to-short ratio indicate short-term caution.

SOL’s reaction to the September 9 upgrade could determine which side gains control.

Solana bulls target the $124 resistance level

Solana is trading within a symmetrical triangle on the four-hour chart. The formation reflects tightening price action and can lead to a breakout in either direction.

The pattern has a projected height of approximately 16%. A break below its lower trendline could send SOL down by a similar percentage toward $84. 

Before that target comes into view, sellers would need to push the price below the psychological support at $100.

Conversely, a decisive move above the triangle resistance at $107 could produce a 16% rally toward $124.

Momentum currently leans toward sellers. The Relative Strength Index stands at 44, below the neutral level of 50, while its lower lows indicate growing selling pressure.

Solana’s immediate outlook therefore depends on the boundaries of its triangle. Holding $100 and breaking above $107 would strengthen the whale-backed bullish scenario, while losing triangle support could expose SOL to a decline toward $84.